107 Key lessons and recommendations Immediate development needs are pressing, but at the same time, the impacts of climate change are set to grow according to successive IPCC assessments and an ever-growing body of research. Current situation The evaluation of the current situation shows there has been atmospheric warming over continental Africa, but changes are not even across the continent. There is evidence of climate change impacts, for instance, affecting South African farmers and Sahel fruit trees. Unfortunately, the risk of impacts is set to grow due to the rapid accumulation of GHGs in the atmosphere and the lack of ambition when it comes to global mitigation efforts in NDCs. With regards to Africa, the IPCC found nine key physical risks, consisting of: (i) shifts in biome distribution; (ii) compound stress on water resources; (iii) degradation of coral reefs; (iv) reduced crop productivity; (v) adverse effects on livestock; (vi) changes in incidence and geographic range of diseases; (vii) undernutrition; (viii) increased migration; and (ix) sea level rise and extreme events. In addition to these physical risks, there are transition risks such as with technologies related to the production, refinement, or combustion of fuels may become stranded assets. These challenges speak to RMF Level 1 and the question of Africa’s progress, climate change risks, and challenges. Climate change is cross-cutting, creating challenges to the fulfilment of the SDGs, the Bank’s High 5s as well as regional development ambitions such as Agenda 2063. The cross-cutting nature of climate change is evident in African NDCs. African NDCs address the full range of SDGs and many of the SDG targets as well. Likewise, the Bank’s own analysis of adaptation needs shows climate change to be cross cutting. While some SDGs and sets of needs are more common than others, and may constitute a focal point for action, all climate change projects need to be grounded in the local context. In some cases, there may be unexpected relationships between climate change and development. Pillar 1 on adaptation and climate-resilient development With regards to Pillar 1 and enhancing the climate resilience of development, human development levels have increased across Africa but climate readiness levels appear to have dropped, even as vulnerability levels have remained static. Across Africa there are a range of human development levels, climate readiness, and vulnerability levels. However, readiness is generally higher for more developed countries, and vulnerability levels are generally lower with increased development. Economic diversification can also enhance the resilience of countries to climate change and other disruptions, and RMCs have been meeting the Bank’s economic diversification targets. Integration and cross-border trade can also increase resilience such as when there are food shortages, but the cost of trade remains stubbornly higher than the Bank’s targets. Feeding Africa and food security is an important part of Pillar 1 and climate resilience. Unfortunately, cereal yields are lower than the Bank’s targets for Africa, and there is a wide variation in cereal yields across the continent. Increased control of inputs and growing environments can enhance climate resilience. However, targets from improved farming technology and land with improved water management and fertiliser consumption are not being met. Meanwhile, Africa remains a net food importer. Self-sufficiency would reduce reliance on food imports and limit the risk of climate change impacts elsewhere in the world affecting African food supply chains and prices. Climate change complicates everything. The impacts of climate change are not just climatic, but include changes to hydrological systems, ecosystems, as well as human and managed systems. Impacts on people, property, and livelihoods are only just emerging and this may explain why climate change is not a high priority for many leaders or people across Africa.
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