1 Introduction Africa is the second-largest continent in the world, consisting of 54 independent nations with hugely diverse climates and ecosystems, human geographies, and economies. Spanning more than 30 million km2, Africa is approximately the same size as the USA, China, India, Japan, and Europe combined. The continent comprises five subregions with different climatic conditions, ranging from a Mediterranean climate in the far north and south to an equatorial/ tropical climate in the central and south-western regions, and arid conditions in the north, west, and south. East Africa, nearby islands and large parts of southern Africa have a subtropical climate. Due to these vast geographical and climatic variations, the continent has a unique and wideranging biodiversity that is crucial for supporting the livelihoods of its 1.25 billion inhabitants, and to sustain the planet’s life-supporting systems. Climate change and development context The evaluation of climate change and development context in Africa starts with the level of atmospheric warming over the continent. The second indicator addresses the global emissions gap between the path we are on and the path we need to follow. The worse the gap, the greater the likelihood that climate change will be a hazard to regional member countries (RMCs). With regards to climate change being a hazard, it is also important to have indicators of risk. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments include maps of physical impacts and maps of physical risks, and an analysis of the “risk of future impacts” at different levels of global warming. In addition to physical risks, there are also transition risks. Physical and transition risks are increasingly being reported in climate-related financial disclosures. For transition risks, a key concern includes the potential for stranded assets. This includes fossil fuel reserves and related infrastructure as well as technologies that use fossil fuels to generate electricity. Atmospheric warming The Paris Agreement includes the aim of limiting global warming to “well below” 2°C while “pursuing efforts” to limit global warming to 1.5°C from pre-industrial times (UNFCCC 2015). Currently we have approximately 1°C of global warming. Meanwhile, in Africa we have had over 1°C of warming since the 1800s. Even though there are temperature variations over time, there is a clear trend towards warming. It is important to be aware that levels of atmospheric warming and other climatic changes differ across Africa and across seasons. This has implications for the distribution of impacts. Concerns related to climate change go beyond warming of the atmosphere and include impacts on the physical systems, biological systems, as well as human and managed systems (i.e. people, property, and livelihoods). The IPCC has made assessments of climate change impacts, and found Africa is already being impacted. Climatic changes have been observed in terms of warming, precipitation, and the frequency of hot, cold, and wet events. Due to these changes, there are impacts on physical and biological systems, as well as human and managed systems. This includes anything from South African farmers adapting to these changes to impacts on Sahel fruit trees. Climate change is also considered to have had a minor role impacting Great Lakes fisheries and Kenyan highland malaria occurrences. It should be noted here that it takes a great deal of research and data to attribute climate change impacts. There are likely to be more impacts, but data may be lacking or research has not yet been undertaken. Greenhouse gas emissions With regards to current global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trends, the UNEP Emissions Gap Report (2020) shows current pledges by countries in the form of NDCs are inadequate to limit global warming to well below 2°C from pre-industrial times. Hence, overshoot scenarios are a real possibility, meaning the accumulation of GHG emissions in the atmosphere driving global warming higher than 2°C. Furthermore, most GHG emissions scenarios that limit climate change to well below 2°C of warming include removing carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere, and likewise, the IPCC identified atmospheric carbon dioxide removals by 2050 as being a key characteristic of 1.5°C pathways. Given the risk of there being global warming overshoot, this raises a question: How much physical risk is there to African development at 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming? Climate change-related risks to development Climate change–related risks include physical risks and transition risks.6 Physical risks regard potential physical impacts of climate change while transition risks regard potential disruption due to adjustments towards a climate-resilient low-GHG emissions economy. Physical risks to development The IPCC highlighted five overarching “reasons for concern” when it comes to climate change, and estimated the risk of impacts on natural, managed, or human systems according to the level Introduction
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