4 African Development Bank — Advancing Climate Change Action and Green Growth in Africa Renewable energy makes up only a small part of Africa’s installed energy capacity whilst the combustion-based electricity generation capacity has grown creating the risk of stranded assets. The need for energy to light and power Africa is indisputable, but not enough of this energy is coming from renewable energy sources, hence the growing transition risk. Eventually the generation of electricity from combustible fuels will need to be replaced by low- and zero-carbon energy sources, in particular renewable energy generation capacity. Climate change and other priorities AidData (2018) noted that globally “leaders emphasize education, jobs, and strong institutions, but turn a deaf ear to climate change and other environmental goals.” This also applies to Africa with climate change only appearing in the top six ranked SDGs for 23.6% of leaders surveyed from Sub-Saharan Africa (SSH) and 11.1% of leaders surveyed from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Importantly, it is not just leaders that have climate change listed near the bottom of their priorities. SSH and MENA citizens surveyed as part of the UN’s MY World Survey (UNDG, 2013) also ranked climate change low on their list of priorities. Importantly, SDGs 4 (quality education), 16 (peace and justice), and 8 (decent work and economic growth) feature at the top of leaders’ priorities. Moreover, peace and justice, education, and health all featured highly in the priorities of citizens and leaders. AidData (2018), in their analysis, noted: “Comparatively, leaders turn a deaf ear towards climate change and other environmental goals. Despite considerable international attention in recent years, individual environmental issues related to climate action (SDG13), life on land (SDG15), life below water (SDG14), and responsible consumption and production (SDG12) fall to the bottom of most leaders’ development priorities. One possible explanation: leaders are loath to tackle issues that require large upfront costs in exchange for uncertain future benefits.” warming to well below 2°C from preindustrial times. Hence, overshoot scenarios are a real possibility, meaning the accumulation of GHG emissions in the atmosphere driving global warming higher than 2°C. Furthermore, most GHG emissions scenarios that li it climate change to well b low 2°C of w rming include removing carbon di xide directly from the atmosphere, and likewise, the IPCC identified atmosph ric carbon dioxide removals by 2050 as being a k y characteristic of 1.5°C pathways. Given the risk of there being global warming overshoot, this rais s a question: How mu h physical risk is th e to African dev lopment at 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming? Clim t change-related risks to development Climate change–related risks include physical risks and transition risks.6 Physical risks regard potential physical impacts of climate change while transition risks regard potential disruption due to adjustments towards a climate-resilient low-GHG emissions economy. 6 Physical and transition risks are increasingly being reported in climate-related financial disclosures, for example, following the recommendations of the Task Force on Climate Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD). Physical risks to development The IPCC highlighted five overarching “reasons for concern” when it comes to climate change, and estimated the risk of impacts on natural, managed, or human systems according to the level f global warmi g. Globally, we already have around 1°C of global warming. However, with 1.5°C of global warming the risk of impacts are generally mo rate to high, and at 2°C the risk of impacts re moderate to very high. The IPCC (2014) also included an assessment of physical r sks within Africa in its Fifth Assessment Report (Figure 50). The IPCC found nin key physic risks within Africa, consis ng of: shifts in biome distribution; compound stress on water resources; d gradation of coral reefs; reduced crop productivity; adverse effec s on livestock; chang s in incidence and geographic range of diseases; undernutrition; increased migration; an sea level rise and extreme events. For each of these physical risks, the IPCC highlighted related adaptation issues d prospects, climatic rivers, timeframes, ris l vels; and th potential for adaptation. These are areas that could f rm a foc s for future AfDB climate policy, strategy, and action plans. Figure 49: Observed climate changes and impacts across Africa Source: Niang et al. 2014 A Observed climate change B Observed impacts AMU EAC/IGAD/ EGYPT ECOWAS ECCAS SADC 7 6 10 11 1 3 4 2 8 5 12 9 7 Regions used for the precipitation and temperature trends Regions used for the temperature trend only AMU SADC ECOWAS EAC/IGAD/Egypt ECCAS Unaffiliated Regional-scale Continental-scale Warming More frequent hot events/less frequent cold events Precipitation changes Change in wet events Physical systems Biological systems Human and managed systems Glacier retreat Southern species range Adapting South African farmers Great Lakes warming Mt. Kilimanjaro wildfires Great Lakes fisheries West African river discharge Western Sahel tree density Kenyan highlands malaria Sahel drought Coral reefs in tropical waters Sahel fruit trees Attribution of major role Attribution of minor role Very low Low Medium Confidence in detection Confidence in attribution High Very high Very low Low Medium High Very high Very low Low Medium Confidence in detection Confidence in attribution High Very high Very low Low Medium High Very high A B ANNEx 2: CLIMATE CHANGE AND DEvELOPMENT CONTExT 65 warm o well below 2°C from preindu trial times. Hence, ov rshoot scenarios re a real possibility, meaning th accumulation of GHG emission in the atmospher driving global warming higher than 2°C. Furthermore, most GHG emissions s ena ios that limit climate change to well below 2° of warming include r moving carb n ioxi e directl from the atmosphere, nd likewise, t e IPCC identified atmo pheric car o ioxide removals by 2050 as being key characteristic of 1.5°C p thways. Given he risk of ther b ing global warming oversho t, this raises a questio : How much physical risk is there to Afric n development at 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming? Climate cha ge-related risks to development Climate chang –related risks include physical isks and t ansition risks.6 P ysical risks regar po ntial physical i acts of clima e change while tra sition risks regard potential disruption due to adjustments towards a climate-resilient low-GHG emissions economy. Physical risks o devel pmen The IPCC highl ghted five overarching “reasons for concern” when it comes to climate change, and esti ated the risk of impacts on natural, managed, or human systems according to the level of glob l warming. Glob lly, we already have around 1°C of global warming. However, with 1.5°C of global warming the risk of i pacts are generally moderate t high, and at 2°C the risk of impacts are moderat to v ry high. The IPCC (2014) also included an assessment of phy ical isks within Africa in its Fifth Assessm nt Report (Figure 50). The IPCC f und nin k y phy ical risks withi Afri a, consisting of: shifts in biom distribution; ompound stress on water resources; degradation of coral reefs; reduced rop productivity; adv rs effects on livestock; changes in incidenc and geographi range of diseas s; und rnutrition; increased migration; a d sea level rise and extreme even s. For ach of these phy ical ri ks, e IPCC highlighted related adaptation is ues and prospects, cli atic drivers, timeframes, risk levels; and the potential for adaptation. These are areas that could form a focus for future AfDB climate policy, strategy, and action plans. Figure 49: Observed climate changes and impacts across Africa Source: Niang et al. 2014 A Observed climate change B Observed impacts AMU EAC/IGAD/ EGYPT ECOWAS ECCAS SADC 7 6 10 11 1 3 4 2 8 5 12 9 7 Regions used for the precipitation and temperature trends Regions used for the temperature trend only AMU SADC ECOWAS EAC/IGAD/Egypt ECCAS Unaffiliated Regional-scale Continental-scale Warming More frequen hot events/less frequent cold events Precipitation changes Change in wet events Physical systems Biological systems Human nd managed systems Glacier retreat Southern species range Adapting South African farmers Great Lakes warming Mt. Kilimanjaro wildfires Great Lakes fisheries West African river discharge Western Sahel tree density Kenyan highlands malaria Sahel dr ught Co al reefs in tropical waters Sahel fruit trees Attribution of major role Attribution of minor role Very low Low Medium Confidence in detection Confidence in attribution High Very high Very low Low Medium High Very high Very low Low Medium Confidence in detection Confidence in attribution High Very high Very low Low Medium High Very high A B ANNEx 2: CLIMATE CHANGE AND DEvELOPMENT CONTExT 65 Observed climate changes and impacts across Africa Source: Niang et al. 2014
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