5 The case for green growth It is widely accepted that sustained economic growth is a major driver of poverty reduction and human development, especially in developing countries. Evidence shows that rapid economic growth could pull more than 600 million people out of poverty and dramatically improve human development in regions across the world. However, it is also clear that the incumbent model of growth, which depends on an ever-increasing consumption of natural resources, is unsustainable and leads to a range of environmental problems, from rapid biodiversity loss and climate change to air pollution and the depletion of freshwater resources. This growth model ultimately results in a reduction of quality of life and will, in the long run, be ruinous to economies, human societies, and biodiversity. Introduction Rationale for the Strategy: Climate change and Africa The African continent is a minor contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions but is highly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change, which threaten its economic development. Yet, the continent also has enormous opportunities to build resilience to climate change as well as transition towards low-carbon development. The Bank shares the commitments made by African countries to global climate change and green growth goals. The decade 2021 through 2030 is often r garded as the Decade of Action, due to many countries developing nationally determined contributions (NDCs) with targets for 2030 (updated every five years), and the critical milestones of the UN’s Agenda 2030 and the Sustain ble Development Goals (SDGs) – as well as the fundamental underlyi g fact that actions are required as soon as possible to prevent the worst potential future climate change impacts (IPCC, 2021). This decade will, therefore, be definitive in the global response to climate change. The global scientific community is in agreement that human influence on the earth’s climate is unequivocal, and that recent changes have had a widespread and unprecedented impact on humans and natural systems (IPCC, 2021). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international standardbearer for climate science, has emphasized that future warming will cause further and “long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive, and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems” (IPCC, 2014). The IPCC is also unequivocal that “limiting clima e chang would require substantial and sustained eductions in greenhouse gas emis ions, which – together with adaptation – can limit climate change risks” (IPCC, 2014). The earth has already warmed by more than 1°C above pre-industrial levels, and the most recent Figure 1: IPCC modelling of three temperature scenarios (top: 1.5°C of warming; centre: 2 °C; bottom: 4°C) and the corresponding effects on annual temperatures (left) and total precipitation (right) (IPCC, 2021) Annual maximum temperatures (TXx) 1.5°C global warming 2°C global warming 4°C global warming Annual minimum temperatures (TNn) Annual total precipitation Annual maximum daily precipitation (Rx1 day) Change (°C) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Change (%) -40 -20 0 20 40 IPCC modelling of three temperature scenarios (top: 1.5°C of warming; centre: 2°C; bottom: 4°C) and the corresponding effects on annual temperatures (left) and total precipitation (right) Source: IPCC 2021 Annual maxi um temperatures (TXx) 1.5°C glob l ing 2°C l arming al warming Annual mini um temperatures (TNn) Annual total precipitation Change (°C) Change (%) Annual maxi daily precipitatio ( x1 day)
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