6 African Development Bank — Advancing Climate Change Action and Green Growth in Africa Figure 2: The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report: Regional Fact Sheet – Africa highlights the different impacts of climate change across the continent by 2050 in a scenario with warming of at least two degrees (IPCC, 2021) Mediterranean (North Africa) • Projected decreases in mean precipitation, increases in fire weather conditions and decreases in mean wind speed; • Observed and projected increases in aridity, meteorological, hydrological and agricultural and ecological droughts. West Africa (WAF) • Observed increase in river flooding; • Observed increase in drying and agricultural and ecological droughts; • Projected increase in meteorological droughts at GWL 4°, mostly in seasonal timescales; • Projected increases in mean wind speed; increase in heavy precipitation and pluvial flooding. Central Africa (CAF) • Observed decreases in mean precipitation; • Observed decrease in standardized precipitation index (i.e deficit of precipitation); • Observed increase in agricultural and ecological droughts; • Projected increases in heavy precipitation and pluvial flooding; • Increases in river flooding. West Southern Africa (WSAF) • Observed decrease in mean precipitation; • Observed increase in heavy precipitation and pluvial flooding; • Observed and projected increase in aridity, agricultural and ecological droughts; • Projected increase in dryness from 1.5°C, higher confidence with increasing global warming; • Projected increases in mean wind speed; increases in fire weather conditions. Sahara including parts of the Sahel (SAH) • Projected increases in heavy precipitation and pluvial flooding. East Southern Africa (ESAF) • Observed decreases in mean precipitation; • Observed and projected increases in heavy precipitation and pluvial flooding; • Observed and projected increase in aridity, agricultural and ecological droughts; • Observed increase in meteorological drought, projected increase in meteorological droughts from 1.5°C, higher confidence at higher GWLs; • Projected increases in fire weather conditions; increases in mean wind speed; increase of average tropical cyclone wind speeds and associated heavy precipitation and of the proportion of category 4–5 tropical cyclones. Madagascar (MDG) • Observed increases in aridity; • Projected increase in meteorological droughts from 1.5°C, higher confidence at higher GWLs; increases in agricultural and ecological droughts types particularly at higher warming levels; • Projected increases in heavy precipitation and pluvial flooding; • Projected increase of average tropical cyclone wind speeds and associated heavy precipitation and of the proportion of Category 4-5 tropical cyclones. North Eastern Africa (NEAF) • Observed decreases in mean precipitation; • Observed and projected decreases in snow and glaciers; • Projected increases in heavy precipitation and pluvial flooding; • Projected decrease in meteorological drought at 4°C global warming. South Eastern Africa (SEAF) • Projected increases in frequency and/or the intensity of heavy precipitation and pluvial flooding; • Observed and projected decreases in snow and glaciers; • Projected increase of average tropical cyclone wind speeds and associated heavy precipitation and of the proportion of category 4–5 tropical cyclones. MED SAH WAF CAF NEAF SEAF ESAF WSAF MDG Monsoon region The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report: Regional Fact Sheet — Africa highlights the different impacts of climate change across the continent by 2050 in a scenario with warming of at least two degrees Source: IPCC 2021
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