7 The negative consequences of the incumbent fossil fuel- and natural resources-driven growth model have become apparent less than two centuries after it became dominant. Human activities have contributed to the warming of the planet by 1°C above pre-industrial levels (IPCC, 2018). Even if the current emissions reduction plans submitted by countries in INDCs, NDCs, and LT-LEDS (Long-term Low Emissions and Development Strategies) under the Paris Agreement are implemented in full, the planet will still see a temperature rise of 3.3°C by the end of the century (Climate Interactive, 2018). Unless countries reduce their production and consumption to sustainable levels, communities, economies and the natural ecosystems that support them will be seriously affected. Current production and consumption practices are leading to rapid biodiversity loss due not just to climate disruption, but also loss of habitat, overexploitation, invasive organisms, and pollution, as well as the interactions among these factors. The planet is already in the midst of a sixth mass extinction that will impact the history of life on earth and the supply of ecosystem services (Ceballos et al, 2017). According to WEF (2016), more than 30% of plastics used for packaging in modern economies end up in natural ecosystems, and the total volume of ocean plastics will grow with increasing consumption. If plastic use continues unchanged, there will be more plastics than fish in the oceans by 2050. The elevated concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere resulting from human actions is leading to increasing acidification of oceans, the ‘evil twin of climate change’. Scientists believe that in the past 200 years, the oceans have become 30% more acidic, a more rapid change than any other known to have occurred in the past 50 billion years (Smithsonian Ocean, 2018). Acidification affects marine ecosystems and thus threatens the food and nutrition security of millions of people, as well as livelihoods linked to tourism and the blue economy. In summary, as population growth and urbanisation continue, it is clear that pursuing high levels of economic growth and a good quality of life under the current growth model is not only unsustainable but will be disastrous for both economies and the planet. Evidence also suggests that economic growth in the past century has not benefited everyone. The gap between the rich and the poor continues to grow, and this unequal distribution of wealth has been found to be causing social and economic instability (Piketty, 2015). Alternative growth models must also address this inequality. The green growth model aims to turn these challenges into opportunities and simultaneously balance the economic, social, and environmental pillars of sustainable development. In other words, green growth offers a new approach to development that seeks to deliver economic growth that is both environmentally sustainable and socially inclusive. It places equal emphasis on the quality and sustenance of economic growth and the means for and pathway to sustainable development. Introduction point of no return in terms of risks and has therefore committed to taking country-level actions that would prevent a further rise to 2°C and beyond (UNFCCC, 2015). However, on the current trajectory, the world is heading towards a temperature rise exceeding 3°C from pre-industrial times by the end of this century (UNEP, 2020), and therefore towards myriad disruptions in planetary climate systems. Africa is already witnessing climate change, and is amongst the region that will experience the most devas ating consequences of projected climat trends. Ma y parts of our continent ar warming at a faster rat than e global average and facing an above-av r g sea-level rise (IPCC, 2021). Furthermor , our c tinen contains some f the world’s most si nificant climate change ‘hotspots’ (IPCC, 2019). Further sea-l vel rises caused by addition l global warming will contribute to i creases in the frequency and severity of coastal flooding in low-lying areas and along most sandy coasts, and in coastal erosion. Climate change will also amplify existing stress on water availability in Africa. The IPCC underscores that climate change will be superimposed onto several already waterstressed catchments and river basins. Water resources on the continent are subjected to high hydro-climatic variability over space and time, and are a key constraint on our continued economic development (IPCC, 2014). Recent IPCC model projections for future rainfall in Africa under three temperature scenarios (see Figure 1) demonstrate that the intensity of heavy precipitation events and pluvial flooding is expected to increase across East, West and Central Africa, while a likely reduction in total rainfall over northern Africa and southwestern Africa will increase drying and agricultural and ecological droughts. African countries, thus, have to prepare themselves for significant shifts in their ecosystems and biodiversity. ecosystems and natural resources. Additional complexity is derived from the fact that different regions of our continent will not face the same climate threats and stresses; and are also differently equipped to manage them. One of the biggest threats to Africa’s people and their way of life, as emphasized by the IPCC, is how climate change will interact with non-climate drivers and stressors to exacerbate the vulnerability of agricultural systems, particularly in the semi-arid are s and lands. Increa ing temperatures and changes in preci itation are very likely to re uce cereal crop produc ivity (incl ding maize and wheat), with strong adverse effects o fo d security. The IPCC also makes n te of emer ing evidence that high-value peren ial crops could lso b adversely affect d by a temperature rise. At a global mean temperatu e increase of 4°C, risks for Africa’s food s curit are assessed as v ry high, with limited potential for risk reductio t roug daptation (IPCC, 2014). Climate change is expected to i crease the challenges of pests, weeds, and diseases that affect crops and livestock (IPCC, 2021). Thus, climate change threatens to undo or weaken the progress fricans have achieved thus far on managing risks to food production from current climate variability and observed climate change. Figure 3 indicates projected crop yields for major cereals in three major regions of the continent through to mid-century (WMO, 2020). These declines will have significant ramifications for food security and nutrition. In terms of human health, climate change may increase the burden of a range of climate-relevant health outcomes through its impact on climatesensitive diseases (such as malaria and meningococcal meningitis) and health conditions (such as waterborne illnesses including cholera). Climate change is a multiplier of existing health vulnerabilities including insufficient access to safe water and improved sanitation, food insecurity, and limited access to health care and education – challenges Figure 3: Projected crop yield changes in percentages (%) for West and Central Africa, North Africa, and East and southern Africa under a high-emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) by the year 2050 (WMO, 2020, based on IFAD data) North Africa West and Central Africa East and Southern Africa 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% Yield change (%) Year 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% Yield change (%) Year 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% Yield change (%) Year Sorghum Wheat Rice Millet Maize Projected crop yield changes in percentages (%) for West and Central Africa, North Africa, and East and southern Africa under a high-emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) by the year 2050 Year Year Year Yield change (%) Yield change (%) Yield change (%) West l frica East a r frica Source: WMO, 2020, based on IFAD data Maize Millet Rice Wheat Sorghum
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