10 African Development Bank — Advancing Climate Change Action and Green Growth in Africa Concepts and building blocks of green growth The terms ‘green growth’ and ‘green economy’ are sometimes used interchangeably. Since green growth is a strategy to green and sustain the economy by investing in and protecting natural capital, it is considered a prerequisite for building a green economy (UN ESCAP, 2013). The concept of green growth is not new. It gained traction in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, which prompted the search for alternative economic paradigms. The United Nations Rio+20 conference in June 2012 provided further impetus to the agenda and multilateral development banks called for a transition towards green growth to achieve sustainable development and prosperity. Since then, green growth policies and practices have been developed in countries and regions across the world, particularly in developing countries, and the concept has been adopted by a growing number of governments, development banks, research institutes, NGOs and civil society organisations (CSOs) as a practical approach for reconciling economic growth, climate action, environmental protection, and social inclusion. Achieving green and inclusive growth is now the overarching objective of the African Development Bank, Africa’s premier multilateral development finance institution, and demonstrating the feasibility of green growth is the primary mandate of the Global Green STRATEGY 2021–2030 that most African countries are still contending with. Furthermore, climate change is projected to increase the thr at of malnutrition, i the most deleterious impacts likely to fall on childr n (IPCC, 2021). Such changes in key economic sectors, coupled with increases in either the occurrence (frequency) or magnitude (intensity) of climate-related hazards, are expected to result in economic loss and damage across the continent. One estimate suggests that for many African countries that are median lowincome developing countries with an annual average temperature f 25°C, an increa e in temperature will dampen economic activity such that the ffe t of a 1°C increase in temperature could provoke a reduction of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 1.2% (WMO, 2020). According to an analysis by the African Climate Policy Centre (ACPC) of the United Nati ns Economic Commissio for Africa (UNECA), a rise in temperature of 3°C acros Africa could result in an 8.2% decreas in continental GDP, a d a 4°C temperature increase c uld lead to an even more damaging 12.1% GDP reduction (UNECA, 2017). In summary, key regional climate change risks for Africa include shifts in biome distribution, loss of coral reefs, reduced crop productivity, adverse effects on livestock, vector- and water-borne diseases, undernutrition, and migration; and the levels of these risks are m dium-to-high, given the continent’s pr nou ced adaptation deficit. Wha is even more sobering is that the IPCC indicates that even Figure 4: Key Risks from climate change and the potential for risk reduction through mitigation and adaptation in Africa (IPCC, 2014) Climate-related drivers of impacts Level or risk & potential for adaptation Warming trend Extreme temperature Extreme precipitation Precipitation Damaging cyclone Sea level Ocean acidification Sea surface temperature Potential for additional adaptation to reduce risk Risk level with high adaptation Risk level with current adaptation Key risk Adaptation issues & prospects Climate drivers Timeframe Risk & potential for adaptation Shifts in biome distribution, and severe impacts on wildlife due to diseases and species extinction (high confidence) [22.3.2.1, 22.3.2.3] Very few adaptation options; migration corridors; protected areas; better management of natural resources Very low Medium Very high Present Near term (2030–2040) Near term (2080–2100) 2°C 4°C Compounded stress on water resources facing significant strain from overexploitation and degradation at present and increased demand in the future, with drought stress exacerbated in droughtprone regions of Africa (high confidence) [22.3-4] • Reducing non-climate stressors on water resources • Strengthening institutional capacities for demand management, groundwater assessment, integrated water-wastewater planning, and integrated land and water governance • Sustainable urban development Very low Medium Very high Present Near term (2030–2040) Near term (2080–2100) 2°C 4°C Degradation of coral reefs results in loss of protective ecosystems and fishery stocks (medium confidence). [122.3.2.3] Few adaptation options; marine protected areas; conservation and protection; better management of natural resources Very low Medium Very high Present Near term (2030–2040) Near term (2080–2100) 2°C 4°C Reduced crop productivity associated with heat and drought stress, with strong adverse effects regional, national, and household livelihood and food infrastructure (high confidence) [22.3-4] • Technological adaptation responses (e.g., stress-tolerant crop varieties, irrigation, enhanced observation systems) • Enhancing smallholder access to credit and other critical production resources; Diversifying livelihoods • Strengthening institutions at local, national, and regional levels to support agriculture (including early warning systems) and genderoriented policy • Agronomic adaptation responses (e.g., agroforestry, conservation agriculture) Very low Medium Very high Present Near term (2030–2040) Near term (2080–2100) 2°C 4°C Key Risks from climate change and the potential for risk reduction through mitigation and adaptation in Africa Source: IPCC, 2014
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