11 Growth Institute (GGGI), a multilateral intergovernmental organisation. In 2015, following the adoption of the 2030 United Nations Sustainable Development Agenda, with its 17 Sustainable Development Goals, and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, the green growth narrative gained further interest as a means to jointly implement the SDGs and NDCs. The targets set in these two global frameworks are used as a guide for solving the pressing economic, social, and environmental challenges facing all countries, including those in Africa. Climate action and the transition to a low-carbon economy are central tenets of the green growth agenda, which offers an integrated approach to delivering economic development and social progress in a climate-resilient and environmentally responsible manner. Green growth also recognises the strong interrelationships between climate mitigation and adaptation measures on the one hand and key SDGs on the other. Various studies have shown that the SDGs and climate action agenda are both inextricably linked and complementary (IPCC, 2018; Northrop et al, 2016). Increased investment in activities and technologies that protect and enhance the earth’s natural capital or reduce ecological scarcities and environmental risks, such as renewable Introduction INTRODUCTION 9 Key risk Adaptation issues & prospects Climate drivers Timeframe Risk & potential for adaptation Adverse effects on livestock linked to temperature rise and precipitation changes that lead to increased heat and water-stress, and shifts in the range of pests and diseases, with adverse impacts on pastoral livelihoods and rural poverty (medium confidence) [22.3.4.2, 22.4.5.2, 22.4.5.6, 22.4.5.8] Addressing non-cimate stressors facing pastoralists, including policy and governance features that perpetuate their marginalization, is critical for reducing vulnerability. Natural resource-based strategies such as reducing drought risk to pastoral livelihoods through use of forest goods and services hold potential, provided sufficient attention is paid to forest conservation and sustainable management Very low Medium Very high Present Near term (2030–2040) Near term (2080–2100) 2°C 4°C Changes in the incidence and geographic range of vector- and water-borne diseases due to changes in the mean and variability of temperature and precipitation, particularly along the edges of their distribution (medium confidence) [22.31] • Achieving development goals, particularly improved access to safe water and improved sanitation, and enhancement of public health functions such as surveillance • Vulnerability mapping and early warning systems • Coordination across sectors • Sustainable urban development Very low Medium Very high Present Near term (2030–2040) Near term (2080–2100) 2°C 4°C Undernutrition, with its potential for life-long impacts on health and development and its associated increase in vulnerability to malaria and diarrheal diseases, can result from changing crop yields, migration due to weather and climate extremes, and other factors (medium confidence) [22.3.5.2] Early warning systems and vulnerability mapping (for targeted interventions); diet diversification; coordination with food and Agriculture sectors; improved public health functions to address underlying diseases Very low Medium Very high Present Near term (2030–2040) Near term (2080–2100) 2°C 4°C Increased migration leading to human suffering, human rights violations, political instability and conflict (medium confidence) [22.3.6, 22.4.5, 22.5.1.3] Adaptation deficit to current flood and drought risk; effective adaptation includes sustainable land management and modification of land use, drought relief, flood control and effective regional and national policy and legislative environment that allows for flexible adaptation responses Very low Medium Very high Present Near term (2030–2040) Near term (2080–2100) 2°C 4°C Sea level rise and extreme weather events disrupt transport systems, production systems, infrastructure, public services (water, education, health, sanitation), especially in informal areas (flooding) (medium confidence) [22.3.7, 22.4.4.4, 22.4.4.6, 22.4.5.6, 22.4.5.71] Early warning systems and vulnerability mapping (for targeted interventions); diet diversification; coordination with food and Agriculture sectors; improved public health functions to address underlying diseases Very low Medium Very high Present Near term (2030–2040) Near term (2080–2100) 2°C 4°C under hypothetically high levels of future adaptation in Africa, there could be very high levels of all climate change risks for African countries. Figure 4 is a reprint It encapsulates the key climate change risks Africa faces, as well as the potential of adaptation measures to moderate the level of risk across nine principal
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