22 African Development Bank — Advancing Climate Change Action and Green Growth in Africa Climate change is already impacting Africa disproportionately, and will continue to do so, primarily by affecting the sectors that are key to the livelihoods of vulnerable communities, such as agriculture, forestry, and fisheries. Protecting natural areas and providing access to energy and quality infrastructure remain challenging in many countries on the continent, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. The green growth approach is seen as a viable model for the delivery of climateresilient and climate-compatible growth that ensures sustainable consumption and production patterns. As income and gender inequalities remain a significant barrier to achieving overall human development despite increases in average GDP per capita in many African countries, the green growth model is also pursued as a way to achieve inclusive growth by creating green and decent jobs; providing better basic services including access to energy, drinking water, and sanitation; closing the digital divide; improving air quality; and contributing to climate action simultaneously. Ensuring climate-compatible economic growth is especially crucial on a continent poised to become the growth frontier of the world; it currently hosts six of the top ten fastest-growing economies and its young and increasingly urban population will grow to 2.2 billion by 2030. Climate action and inclusive green growth are particularly important at the current moment, as economies around the world have been ravaged by the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 also tends to have more severe impacts on populations subjected to high levels of air pollution, which is generated by similar sources and can be addressed through the same mitigation measures as climate change. Furthermore, growing populations and the incumbent resourceintensive economic growth models will put further pressure on natural ecosystems and increase the risk of future pandemics. COVID-19 has highlighted the need for cleaner and greener economic models that create more jobs, deliver greater resilience to impending climate change, and minimise dangerous impacts on the environment when compared to carbon-intensive, polluting incumbent growth models. While green growth offers many benefits, most countries’ capacity for achieving it is reduced by a lack of readiness and of an enabling environment. The major socioeconomic, climate vulnerability, and green growth indicators across Africa Demography, population and GDP growth Africa currently has the highest rate of population growth of all continents at 2.5% per year, and the continent’s population is projected to grow to 2.2 billion by 2050. In 2017, 60% of Africa’s population was below 25 years of age. Africa is also urbanising faster than any other region in the world, at an annual rate of 3.5%. It is expected that by 2030, about 50% of Africa’s people will live in cities. In the early 1990’s, predictions were made that cities such as Abuja, Ouagadougou and Kigali would at least quintuple in size by 2025 and this is gradually happening due to rural-urban migration as people search for better economic opportunities. This rapid growth, if unplanned, will exacerbate the health, water, security, and climate change vulnerability of slum populations on the continent. Slum dwellers are estimated to make up 70-90% of the urban population in the ten African nations with the largest slum populations. Economic growth in Africa has been gathering pace over the past decades. The IMF estimates that six out of the ten economies with the fastest GDP growth are in Africa. This growth trend is likely to continue. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook Database (2018) indicated that 17 African economies have achieved a GDP (PPP) of $5,000 or more per capita. Equatorial Guinea, Seychelles, Mauritius, Gabon and Botswana have GDPs of $18,000-35,000 (PPP) per capita. In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), economies are expected to grow further due to rising international commodity prices, a stronger global economy and favourable domestic policies, though this growth has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Benin, Burkina Faso, Cote d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Rwanda, Senegal, Uganda, and Tanzania are expected to continue to achieve the highest growth rates. Larger economies, such as South Africa, Angola and Nigeria, are currently growing at rates comparable to population growth, although this could change post-COVID. In order to realise the UN’s zero poverty goal (SDG 1), however, economic growth rates higher than population growth rates may be necessary. While the African growth story continues, the continent’s economies are not without vulnerabilities. Risks include rising levels of public debt and fluctuations in the international commodity export prices upon which many of the continent’s economies depend. AGI Brookings (2019) indicates that in 2019 a total of 14 African countries were at risk of debt distress due to rising government debt or debt servicing costs. Such risk factors can negatively impact the quality and inclusiveness of growth in Africa. Quantitative model-based estimates of
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