29 Increasingly frequent extreme heat events caused by climate change are also likely to impact (agricultural) productivity and economic growth. In a world that is 2ºC warmer, 45% of Africa’s land area is projected to experience unusual extreme heat events. Central Africa has already seen rising temperatures and Southern Africa could see a considerable increase in the number of dry days and a 20% decrease in precipitation. The IPCC Africa Report (Niang et al, 2014) projected that between 75 and 250 million people on the continent will face severe water stress by 2020, and this number will increase to 350-600 million by 2050. Even if rainfall patterns remain unchanged, temperature rises will still cause amplified heat stress, especially in drier regions. Lake Chad, which supports the agricultural livelihoods of more than 30 million people in Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria, has already shrunk by 90% from its original size due to the impacts of climate change, unsustainable water use, and desertification (Pham-Duc et al, 2020). If temperatures were to rise by 3ºC, farming of currently used varieties of cereal crops such as maize, millet, and sorghum could become impossible in areas across the continent. Maize production in southern Africa is projected to be particularly vulnerable to climate change. However, farmers could benefit from the promotion of smart agricultural practices such as multiple-cropping systems and the cultivation of non-cereal crops such as cassava, which is resistant to high temperatures and infrequent rainfall. The high climate change vulnerability of the African agriculture sector is due to the fact that most agriculture is rainfed and underdeveloped. The majority of farmers are small-scale subsistence farmers (mainly women) with limited access to financial resources, infrastructure, and information (Pereira, 2017). Climate change impacts such as drought, desertification, and growing resource scarcity are likely to exacerbate existing problems in already fragile parts of the continent, such as the Sahel region, where agriculture supports a vast population across several countries. Livestock farming also needs to adapt to protect incomes, health, and food and nutrition security in poor rural households in many African countries. On average, income from livestock constitutes over 35% of total household income on the continent, and accounts for up to 85% of income in communities such as the Maasai. About 80% of poorer African households keep animals, and often livestock is the primary type of asset these households own (Hererro et al, 2014). The sector offers great potential to create jobs and provide decent incomes as demand for milk, meat, and eggs grows due to rapid urbanisation. Smallholder mixed crop-livestock systems are projected to remain dominant until 2050 and are likely to be relatively resilient to climate change as they often involve the keeping of heat-tolerant animals such as sheep and goats. Such livestock can also increase households’ resilience by providing backup income when crops fail. On the other hand, large farms holding less heat-tolerant animals, such as cattle, are likely to be impacted more (Rust & Rust, 2013). Agricultural productivity Agriculture has long been and will remain an important sector for Africa’s development. Between 1975 and 2013, the sector’s share of GDP (2005 prices) remained relatively constant at 1215%, whereas in Asia, for example, its share plummeted from 20% to ~8% due to industrialisation (FAO, 2015). Agriculture accounts for about a quarter of Africa’s GDP, employs 6070% of the labour force, and supports the livelihoods of 90% of population in the continent (AfDB, 2017a). Agriculture has the potential to be a significant driver of wealth creation, improved food and nutrition security, and economic growth. In Africa, just a 1% increase in crop productivity can reduce the share of people living in poverty by 0.72% (compared with 0.48% in Asia; ThirtleLin and Piesse, 2003). Between 40% and 70% of the value of foods sold in urban Africa is added in the post-farm gate segments of the supply chain. This points to a significant opportunity for youth employment in agricultural value addition (AGRA, 2017). Total factor productivity, a measure that captures labour and land productivity as well as the use of inputs such as irrigation water and fertiliser, remained flat in Africa until the mid-1980s, after which time it steadily increased until 2012 (Benin, 2016). Still, Africa’s agricultural production systems have not grown sufficiently to keep up with the growing demand, and an increasingly large share of consumed food is imported. In Sub-Saharan Africa, food imports from outside the region rose from $4 billion to $45 billion between 2001 and 2014 (ILO, 2017). Climate change is likely to severely affect agricultural production on the continent, through impacts such as loss of fertile land, shorter growing seasons, erratic rainfall patterns and greater ambient heat. Natural ecosystems and biodiversity Biodiversity, both terrestrial and aquatic, is part of a nation’s natural capital. The protection and enhancement of natural capital is key for rural development and climate change adaptation, as ecosystems provide invaluable services that support the livelihoods, cultures, and customs of rural communities. A country’s ecological footprint is a measure of its consumption of natural capital expressed in terms of the land area required to produce food, fibre, and timber for its population, absorb Climate change —core to the African Development Bank’s strategy
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