33 driven by grid electrification. By 2030, Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to become the last frontier in the battle for universal energy access, as it is home to 80% and 40% of the world’s populations without access to electricity and clean cooking solutions, respectively. While on-grid electrification remains central in the pursuit of universal energy access in Sub-Saharan Africa, support and new business models for off-grid electrification solutions are rapidly expanding. Studies show that off-grid solar power solutions could be a cheap complementary means to achieving universal electrification without increasing GHG emissions and air pollution. While grid connection costs vary across countries, a McKinsey study estimated that the cost of a single new connection to an urban grid in Sub-Saharan Africa costs about $750, while a similar connection in a rural area could cost as much as $2300 (this study used Tanzania as benchmark; McKinsey, 2015). In comparison, the deployment of a typical solar home system in the region would cost at most $200, and pico solar lights are now available for as little as $10. Such low-cost solutions are making a visible difference with their widespread use in roadside stalls and markets in rural areas. Solar home systems, though their share in the off-grid solar power market is still small, are spreading fast in SubSaharan Africa, an expansion facilitated by mobile phone-based pay-as-you-go (PAYG) systems. Currently, more than 98% of the world’s PAYG off-grid solar unit sales are made in East and West Africa. These off-grid solutions also contribute to the greening of Africa’s electricity mix, without which air pollution and GHG emissions would grow dramatically as the economies of the region grow, urbanise, and industrialise. Africa has immense potential for renewable energy generation. Taking into account topography; distances between national grids and load centres; transport infrastructure; and protected areas, the potential for economically viable renewable energy generation in 21 countries in the socalled ‘Africa Clean Energy Corridors’ is estimated to be more than 3.8 TW for wind, 15 TW for solar PV and 5 TW for solar CSP (Wu et al, 2015). West Africa alone is estimated to have a technical potential of 128 GW for ongrid wind, 171 GW for off-grid wind, 1451 GW for on-grid solar PV and 1830 GW for off-grid solar PV (IRENA, 2016). Countries in these regions are gradually beginning to recognise the huge potential of renewable energy to meet their targets under SDG 7 and SDG 13. Out of 53 NDCs submitted to the UNFCCC by African nations, 45 contain quantified renewable energy targets (IEA, 2018). However, the current renewable energy generation capacity on the continent remains low at 42 GW. The IEA estimates that half of total electricity demand in 2030 could be met by 310 GW of renewable energy capacity. Achieving this will require an annual investment of $70 billion by 2030 and would result in emissions reductions of 310 mtCO2e per year. It would also create jobs, including for women: an IEA gender survey conducted in 2018 revealed that women held 32% of jobs in the renewable energy sector compared to 28% in the oil and gas sector (IRENA, 2019). Putting Africa’s renewable energy potential to work to meet the target of achieving universal energy access by 2030 would require the factoring in of off-grid electrification into countries’ energy access plans, particularly in SubSaharan Africa, to take the advantage of the potential for leapfrogging in this sector. The off-grid energy sector can play an important role particularly at a time when many of Sub-Saharan Africa’s state-owned utilities are in a bad financial state, often due to ongrid electrification programmes that cannot be expanded or sustained under existing revenue models. A World Bank survey indicated that fewer than half of Sub-Saharan African utilities are able to cover their operating expenditures with existing revenues, and many are losing over $0.25 for every kWh sold (Engineering News, 2019). For example, South Africa’s biggest utility company has debts of 500 billion Rand ($35 billion), which are threatening the entire national economy (Gulf News, 2019). Access to infrastructure Expanding access to digital infrastructure such as the internet and mobile connectivity is increasingly essential for countries to narrow the ‘digital divide’ and deploy various leapfrogging and climate-resilient solutions. These solutions include solar home systems paid off through mobile banking, early warning systems, and weather/market information and insurance products that enhance the bargaining power and climate adaptability of subsistence farmers. Internet access is also a key enabler of productivity growth and of the knowledge/information flows required for innovation. Access to mobile phones in Africa is steadily expanding and already more than 80% of the population own a phone (compared with 131% in Europe and 96% in Asia-Pacific; WeAreSocial & Hootsuite, 2017). However, access to the internet lags behind at just 29% of the population (compared to a global average of 50%). There is significant variation among countries as well as between rural and urban areas. In South Africa, internet access exceeds 50%, while in central Africa it is just 10%. Eritrea (1%), Niger (2%) and Chad (3%) are among nine African countries identified as the least connected in the world, which indicates that significant support is required in Climate change —core to the African Development Bank’s strategy
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy NzQ1NTk=