45 the continent. At present, twenty partner organisations utilize the Hub to coordinate their climate change support interventions and the Bank plans to channel resources through the NDC Hub over the next decade to effectively boost support to African countries for the development and financing of their LTSs, in addition to their NDCs. LTSs outline how countries will achieve netzero emissions and climate resilience by 2050 or during the second half of the century, depending on their circumstances. Without LTSs, NDCs lack clear direction and vision. Barriers to financing the blue economy The African Development Bank’s 20132022 strategy created a strong focus on ‘inclusive growth and transition to green growth’ establishing a strong foundation for new opportunities and priorities for a ‘sustainable and inclusive blue economy’ in the next strategy and beyond. This paper presents some key foundations for the Bank and others to consider, to build on these foundations to develop a continental ‘sustainable ocean or blue’ economy that is resilient to climate change, and which remains productive and vibrant long into the future. Given the interlinkages between the global threats and pressures affecting natural systems, dealing effectively with climate change will also provide opportunities and pathways to tackle other major challenges. The zoonotic origins of the COVID-19 virus (Wong et al., 2019) is attributed to many of the same drivers as climate change, including human population and economic growth, habitat fragmentation, and unsustainable uses of nature. The COVID-19 pandemic represents one of the many possible threats that can emerge from unsustainable practices. In general, the solutions to it, if implemented holistically, are consistent with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which should put in place the infrastructure for addressing many of the sustainability threats the African continent will face in coming decades. Delivering a climate resilient ocean economy could transform the prospects for tens or even hundreds of millions of Africans, lifting them from poverty and a systemic lack of opportunities to a ‘Good Quality of Life’ (Intergovernmental SciencePolicy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services [IPBES], 2019). Financing the sustainable blue economy faces many barriers, as the scope, scale and uncertainties are novel. As a result, firms and investors lack the experience and expertise to address these challenges (Credit Suisse, 2020). To overcome the barriers, global institutions are investing in new analyses to guide countries, development banks and investors, with a strong focus on precaution. The reason for the degree of prudence is the widespread evidence of the declining health and productivity of living natural resources, and the understanding that there is in essence just one ocean. As a consequence, the ocean development pathway for the coming decades must be managed correctly, as getting it wrong will mean not only destroying options for redirecting ocean economy development, but also accelerating biodiversity loss, climate change and other global challenges to global prosperity. Thus, the High Level Panel on a Sustainable Ocean and UNEP’s Sustainable Blue Economy Finance Initiative (UNEPFI, 2020), bringing together global leaders in finance, economics and ocean health, independently released a series of publications in 2020 that provide a blueprint for future action (Annex 2). At the same time, innovative examples of new financial instruments and investment models are being prototyped around the world, and there are some best case examples of what has worked to date. Applying the latest principles, drawing lessons from these case studies, and considerations of African development needs and socio-ecological contexts should be a starting point for developing a new Africa-focused approach to financing blue economic developments. Lastly, given the challenges of this new frontier of engagement, it is unlikely, and in fact unproductive, for countries to develop new approaches in isolation. Thus the regional approach, focused on ocean regions, and continental approach, for consistent continental policy and trade, are essential for progress on the blue economy in Africa. Risk is a key concern for economic investment, applying equally to the blue economy and particularly in relation to climate change and resilience as longer-term concerns. Risk assessment offers a framework for institutions to understand their general exposure to climate risk, and guidance for assessing this in relation to disclosure for investors has been developed (UNEPFI, 2020). In a global survey of risk in blue economy sectors, climate change rated as the highest risk factor, and both climate resilience and positive environmental impacts were rated as the two most important non-financial considerations. Assuring that climate risk is addressed in blue economy planning is thus essential for this sector to grow in Africa; ensuring climate resilience and minimizing environmental impacts are thus among the most critical design factors. Climate change —core to the African Development Bank’s strategy
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