63 Green growth in Africa — current initiatives and future developments Climate change complicates Africa’s development agenda, generating physical risks that need to be considered if development is to be resilient and long lasting. To date, impacts on people, property, and livelihoods have been limited, which might explain why climate change is a low priority for leaders and others across Africa. However, the risk of impacts is expected to increase rapidly. Reductions in Africa’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will have a limited influence on global warming and related physical hazards. Yet despite Africa’s very low annual per capita emissions of 4.7 tonnes per capita (CO2eq), investing in low-carbon development helps avoid “transition risks” and the possibility of “stranded assets.” Furthermore in the past, low carbon investments were considered costly, but investments in renewable energy technologies are not only commercially viable, but in many locations are the most cost-effective option for electrification. It is in this context that the African Development Bank Group’s Second Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP2) was evaluated. CCAP2 covered the period 2016 to 2020 but was extended to 2021 due to COVID-19. CCAP2 was built on four pillars, comprising Pillar 1 on adaptation and climate-resilient development, Pillar 2 on mitigation and low-carbon development, Pillar 3 on climate finance, and Pillar 4 on enabling environment and crosscutting issues. Pillars 1 and 2 address the situation in Africa and the Bank’s contribution to climate-resilient low-carbon development; meanwhile, Pillars 3 and 4 have a greater focus on the Bank’s operational effectiveness and institutional efficiency. CCAP2 was ambitious with mixed results. The evaluation of CCAP2 is based on the CCAP2 indicator results framework, and the Bank’s Results Measurement Framework (RMF) with indicators viewed through a climate change lens. The evaluation also includes a thematic analysis of climate change–related evaluations and annual reports from the Bank, which identify issues and interventions that can enhance Pillar 4 on an enabling environment. Climate finance from internal sources is an order of magnitude greater than that mobilized from external sources. For example, in 2020, internal sources of climate finance totalled $1,545 billion, meanwhile external sources mobilized totalled $0.550 billion. While progress has been made increasing the proportion as climate finance from the Bank’s approved operations, this represents only a fraction of the estimated finance required to ensure climate-resilient low-carbon development. A majority of this finance will come from domestic sources including taxes. At the same time, at least $3.85 billion per year is needed to support adaptation components of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) while between $42 and 152 billion is needed to support African NDCs. At the operations level, 90% of new operations had climate-informed designs in 2020 (PECG Report, 2020). However, CCAP-related evaluations show climate change considerations need to be included in all operational decisions. Hence, it is recommended that the Bank continue to include climate change considerations in the design of new operations, and also include climate change considerations in all operational decisions that are either affected by climate change or influence GHG emissions. Oversight, monitoring, reporting, and decision systems should be important elements of the CCAP3. It should be noted here that the CCAP is not actually an “action plan,” but rather addresses strategic goals and objectives and sets out the approaches the Bank as a whole can use to address climate change. As such, each of the CCAP2 pillars could only be assessed in broad terms. Putting the evaluation in context, there has already been over 1°C of atmospheric warming over Africa and current global GHG emissions indicate the world is on The adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement has been significant for many African countries that aim for continued economic progress and prosperity but wish to learn from decades of unsustainable development elsewhere
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