65 a path to overshooting the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to well below 2°C. In fact, carbon dioxide removals at scale will be needed to limit climate change. Given that global failure to limit climate change is the most likely scenario, climate resilience is essential. With regard to Pillar 1 on adaptation and climate-resilient development, many challenges remain, starting with feeding Africa and domestic food security. Cereal yields have not met yield targets of 2.2 tonnes per 2020, and there are great variations in yields across Africa. By 2019, the Bank had tripled its own target of 6.3 million people benefiting from improvements in agriculture; however, there is a general failure Africa-wide to meeting the Bank’s target of 0.63 million people from rural populations using improved farming technologies by 2019, or the target of 47.8 thousand hectares of land with improved water management by 2019. Instead, 0.1 million people from rural populations were using improved farming technologies in 2019 and 23.3 thousand hectares of land had improved water management. However, Africa’s net agricultural trade balance has improved in dollar terms, but Africa remains a net food importer, importing $28.2 billion worth of food in 2019. Improved trade and reduction in trade costs could also help improve resilience and food security. Likewise, economic diversification can help increase resilience to shocks including climate shocks. When it comes to Pillar 2 on mitigation and low-carbon development, per capita GHG emissions for Africa are 3.5 tonnes per capita (CO2eq) in 2018, well below the 4.7 tonnes per capita (CO2eq) required globally in 2030 for the world to be on a path towards fulfilling the Paris Agreement. However, Africa needs development and many technologies and practices available include GHG emissions. In fact, the proportion of electricity produced using combustible fuels has increased to just under 81% in 2018. There are growing oil and gas reserves, with 120,573,130 petajoules of gas reserves, 717,828 petajoules of oil reserves, and 382,016 petajoules of coal reserves. Capital related to these resources, including refining and combustion technologies, risk becoming stranded assets if the world moves aggressively to curtail GHG emissions. Unfortunately, the Bank’s targets related to energy have largely been missed with only 174 MW of renewable energy installed by 2019 compared to a target of 560 MW. Likewise, only 29% of the population had access to clean cooking solutions in 2019, compared to a target of 63% in 2020. In addition to energyrelated GHG emissions, agriculture, forestry, and land use (AFOLU) change and forestry make up the majority of Africa’s emissions profile accounting for the majority of Africa’s GHG emissions. Africa’s NDCs to the global response to climate change are ambitious, including conditional targets requiring climate finance in many cases. Regarding Pillar 3 (Climate Finance), the Bank set a target to allocate at least 40% of its approvals as climate finance by 2020, out of which 50% will be attributed to adaptation. The Bank’s climate finance grew from 9% in 2016 to 35% in 2019 and 34% by 2020. The Bank could have achieved the 40% target by 2020, but the prioritization of COVID19 interventions. It is important to note that the proportion of Bank’s financing devoted to adaptation has jumped from 26% in 2016 to 69% in 2020, largely surpassing the global average which stands at 10%. The Bank is achieving its goal of parity between adaptation and mitigation finance, reaching 50%, 55% and 69% of climate finance being invested in adaptation actions in 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively. There has been a steady increase of Bank’s adaptation finance, moving from $500 million in 2012 to about 2 billion in 2019. The goal is to achieve a constant rise in both adaptation and mitigation finance. While there has been progress with reference to Pillar 3 on climate finance, there have also been setbacks, most notably the COVID-19 pandemic– influenced priorities in 2020, reducing the proportion of finance tagged as being climate finance. With climate finance at 34%, there is a long way to go to fulfil the Paris Agreement goal of having all climate finance aligned with climate-resilient lowcarbon development. Given the need for adaptation and climate-resilient development, the Bank had the goal of parity between adaptation finance and mitigation finance. The Bank surpassed this with adaptation finance accounting for 63% of climate finance in 2020, up from 36% in 2016. While including climate change in the design of projects and operations helps, there are challenges when it comes to monitoring adaptation and mitigation outcomes and the extent to which climate finance influences climate change and development outcomes in Africa, especially given the scale of challenges faced both in terms of the required resources and ambition levels. With regard to Pillar 4 on enabling environment, climate change complicates the Bank’s processes and the work of staff. For example, while climate change is included in the design of most operations, operational decisions may or may not include climate change as a consideration. And while the Climate Change and Green Growth Department (PECG) can provide advice and guidance, other staff from across the Bank are involved in making decisions with a bearing on operations and finance. As such, internal Green growth in Africa — current initiatives and future developments
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