74 African Development Bank — Advancing Climate Change Action and Green Growth in Africa integration of Africa can also have a bearing on whether we have high- or low-carbon development, for example, when it comes to transport, including the transportation of natural resources. GHG emissions and development The mitigation of GHG emissions is a core part of the global response to climate change. Current progress mitigating GHG emissions are measured through GHG emissions inventories, which are prepared by many countries. When inventories are not available for a country, data is estimated by international organizations and research organizations. As such, emissions estimates are available for most African countries and include energy-related emissions, industrial emissions, transport-related emissions, as well as AFOLU. Per capita GHG emissions have been falling while human development levels have generally been increasing across Africa. However, total GHG emissions have increased from 2000 through to 2018. Regardless, per capita GHG emissions for Africa as a whole, are lower than global per capita levels required in 2030 to fulfil SDG 13 and be on track to fulfilling the Paris Agreement. At the same time, there is a need to fulfil other SDGs and increase levels of human development. Some countries have per capita emissions greater than the level required to fulfil SDG 13 in 2030, while others are well below this benchmark. Energy accounts for the largest single share of GHG emissions (orange line), followed by land use change and forestry (light blue) and agriculture (dark blue). However, collectively AFOLU makes up the majority of GHG emissions. Industrial processes and waste each make up a small proportion of Africa’s GHG emissions. Importantly, time series data shows a trend of increasing GHG emissions over time, including over CCAP1 and CCAP2. However, in good news, land use changes–related emissions dropped at the start of the CCAP2 period. Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) Fifty-three African countries have submitted Indicative Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) or NDCs. Only Libya has not submitted any document, while South Sudan has only submitted its INDC. While NDCs are “nationally determined,” in many cases they have been prepared with international support and the use of consultants. Regardless, NDCs are signed off and submitted by RMCs to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The analysis of NDCs below assumes NDCs are representative of African countries and their national interests. For mitigation, key metrics include unconditional and conditional mitigation targets. Unconditional mitigation targets are these the country commits to regardless of what other countries do. Conditional targets generally rely on support from other countries, for example through provision of finance and clean technology by developed countries. Thus, based on “Pledge Pipeline” data compiled by the United Nations Environment Programme (Fenhann 2021), there are 42 quantifiable high ambition mitigation targets for the year 2030 from African countries and another 41 low ambition mitigation targets (including conditional NDCs). To allow meaningful comparison, these mitigation targets have been converted into per capita emissions figures using United Nations Population Department medium population projections for the year 2030. This allows us to compare African mitigation targets with global per capita emissions level required to have a 50% chance of limiting global warming to below 2°C from preindustrial times (Fenhann 2021). For the world to have a 50% chance of limiting global warming to below 2°C, global per capita emissions need to be around 4.7 tonnes of CO2eq per person in year 2030. The majority of African countries have GHG emissions targets for year 2030 below this level. Four countries even have negative GHG emissions targets. Note: negative emissions are important, as the removal of atmospheric GHG is necessary in most scenarios that limit global warming below 2°C and all scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5°C (UNEP GAP Report, IPCC 2018). In many cases, high ambition targets are from conditional NDCs and require international support if these are to be fulfilled. Meanwhile, many lower ambition targets are unconditional NDCs that will be made by the country using its own resources. With regards to the finance required to fulfil conditional NDCs, see Chapter 4. In many cases billions of US dollars are required. Like with adaptation, when faced with the need to act on climate change, it may be tempting to try and identify priority sectors for mitigation interventions. However, AFOLU and energy-related activities are where the greatest potential for reductions exists. Climate change is related to each of the SDGs, with some SDGs relevant to more countries and their NDCs than others. Meanwhile, targets and actions that can be taken to address climate change and other issues vary greatly. Understanding country context is very important, whilst the identification of priority interventions should only serve as a guide to climate actions.
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