Together We Stand

[ 99 ] Forecast-based financing: climate science and timely funding of early actions in an anticipatory humanitarian system German Action Plan for Humanitarian Adaptation to Climate Change 1 T he international humanitarian system is facing enormous challenges in meeting the needs of vulnerable people worldwide. Besides the increas- ing number of affected people due to conflicts, the natural disasters occurring on an annual basis have increased from around 200 to 400 over the last 20 years. Wherever people depend on protection and support in disasters, humanitarian assistance can guarantee their survival in dignity and security, and alleviate the suffering of those unable to overcome their hardship by themselves. Nonetheless funding gaps are evident. Although 2015 saw the highest level of funding contributed to United Nations appeals in many years, it also witnessed the biggest shortfall between needs and resources. United Nations figures show that in the last decade humanitarian appeals have increased six-fold. Climate change and climate risks can be major causes of humanitarian emergencies and can severely impact people already suffering from conflicts and socioeconomic circum- stances. To address the new challenges linked to climate change, in 2011 the German Federal Foreign Office launched the Preparedness Initiative, aiming at shifting the paradigm of humanitarian assistance from reactive crisis management to more active risk management. Current and future risks of climate change in combination with often unplanned urbanization, limited food supplies, poorly managed natural resources, population growth and extreme poverty represent major challenges, particularly for people in developing countries. The already visible negative impacts of climate change on people’s living conditions will increase, and most likely result in more humanitarian disasters of catastrophic proportions and more small- to medium-sized disasters caused by climate conditions in regions currently considered to be safe. Thus, despite increasing humanitar- ian funds, the gap between needs and available resources will likely continue to grow. At the same time weather-dependent risks can be predicted with increasing accuracy. Climate researchers and weather experts are able to determine the probability of extreme weather events for specific regions based on forecasts up to six months in advance. Thus, many climate-related hazards can be predicted; but humanitarians do not always have real- time information about when and where extreme-weather events like storms, floods and droughts are expected, or they do not get the funds to act upon this information. At present, humanitarian finance is mostly available for either long-term preparedness measures or once a disaster strikes. Waiting for disaster to happen, however, means accepting avoidable human suffering and spending enormous amounts of resources after the event, when a fraction of these invested beforehand would have a much stronger impact. Yet there is a window of opportunity between a forecast and a disaster when preparedness actions can be taken, for instance storing drinking water for the elderly before a heatwave. Since 2014, the German Government and Red Cross Red Crescent have been working on a new concept — Forecast- based financing (Fbf), a system to fill the gaps in the humanitarian system by using improved forecasts to antici- pate possible impacts in risk-prone areas and make resources for certain humanitarian actions automatically available before an event. Image: Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, 2015 Early actions in Uganda were implemented based on weather forecasts T ogether W e S tand