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nternational

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ciences

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prints for the representation of processes including change

and will focus on advanced monitoring and data analysis

techniques. An interdisciplinary path will be sought by

bridging with socio-economic sciences and geosciences

in general.

Panta Rhei fits well within the much broader ‘Future

Earth’ initiative. This major ten-year programme started

in 2013 and brings together natural and social sciences

through cooperation between the International Council

for Science (ICSU), the International Social Sciences

Council (ISSC) and the Belmont Forum, along with

several other major international organizations including

UNESCO. As water is a key element underpinning sustain-

ability for society, seeking the connection and synthesizing

the research findings from the two initiatives will provide a

unique opportunity to promote interdisciplinarity.

Panta Rhei: three clear objectives

Understanding.

This has always been the essence of

hydrology as a science. Improving our knowledge of

hydrological systems and their responses to changing

environmental (including anthropomorphic) condi-

tions, and in particular variability and indeterminacy,

is a key step in deciphering change and the interac-

tion with society. Special attention is to be devoted

to complex systems like mountain areas, urban areas,

alluvial fans, deltas, intensive agricultural areas, and to

the specification of new measurement and data analysis

techniques, which will allow the development of new

understanding of coevolution processes.

Estimation and prediction.

This is closely related to

understanding, and it is the essence of hydrologic engi-

neering and hydrological applications, embracing flood

risk mitigation and water resources management. This

objective includes estimation of design variables under

change and uncertainty assessment that is a crucial step

to support risk evaluation.

Science in practice

. This signifies that Panta Rhei aims

to include humans in the study of hydrological systems

and therefore aims to achieve an iterative exchange

between science, technology and society. Science in

practice is science for people. It is, therefore, relevant to

science (both fundamental and applied) and relevant to

water technology. It includes policymaking and imple-

ment practices. In the past decade (2003-2012), IAHS has focused

its research on Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB), developing

models to better predict availability of water in diverse climatic and

economic circumstances and water-use settings, and to better fore-

cast and predict floods and droughts in basins and regions in which

there has been little or inadequate data on which to base models.

The PUB decade has resulted in three major publications:

Runoff

Prediction in Ungauged Basins – Synthesis across Processes, Places

and Scales,

published by Cambridge University Press; a summary

article in the

Hydrological Sciences Journal

‘A decade of Predictions

in Ungauged Basins (PUB) – a review’; and

Putting PUB into Practice

(in press as of April 2013). These publications combine advancing

the predictive capability and fundamental understanding of hydro-

logical processes with making the findings relevant to the needs

of societies in basins of all scales. The PUB initiative has brought

together scientists, practitioners and policy makers from around

the world and from many organizations, including UNESCO, in a

cooperative effort.

Currently, IAHS is developing a new scientific decade for 2013-2022,

entitled ‘Panta Rhei – Everything Flows’. The initiative is dedicated to

research activities on change in hydrology and society. The purpose

of Panta Rhei is to reach an improved interpretation of the processes

governing the water cycle by focusing on their shifting dynamics in

connection with rapidly changing human systems. The practical aim

is to improve our capability to make predictions of water resources

dynamics to support sustainable societal development in a changing

environment. The concept implies a focus on hydrological systems as a

changing interface between environment and society, whose dynamics

are essential for determining water security, human safety and devel-

opment, and for setting priorities for environmental management. The

scientific decade 2013-2022 will devise innovative theoretical blue-

Hydrology and water security

As defined by UNESCO (1964), hydrology is the science

that deals with the waters of the Earth; their occurrence,

circulation and distribution on the planet; their physical

and chemical properties; and their interactions with

the physical and biological environment, including their

responses to human activity.

Water security is defined as the capacity of a

population to safeguard sustainable access to adequate

quantities of acceptable quality water for sustaining

livelihoods, human well-being, and socio-economic

development; for ensuring protection against water-borne

pollution and water-related disasters; and for preserving

ecosystems in a climate of peace and political stability.

Drinking water supply in Kibera, Nairobi, Kenya

Image: G. Young