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cover 87 districts spread over Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan,
Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra,
Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamilnadu. Agriculture
in this region is largely dependent on rainfall. In arid
regions of India, more than 90 per cent of annual rainfall
occurs during the monsoon season, and any changes in
monsoon rainfall will strongly impact agriculture. Climate
variability has had an adverse effect on the production of
major crops such as pulses, oilseeds, coarse grain crops
and cotton along with wheat and rice in dryland tracts.
About 228 million hectares (mha) or 69 per cent of the
total geographical area (about 328 mha) is under drylands
in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas of the country.
Rajasthan accounts for the most desertified land (23 mha),
followed by Gujarat, Maharashtra, Jammu and Kashmir (13
mha each) and Orissa and Andhra Pradesh (5 mha each).
According to reports, 68 per cent of the country is prone
to drought and this will be further heightened because of
the impact of climate change, particularly in drylands. Land
degradation caused by multiple forces including extreme
weather conditions (particularly drought) and human
activities are also affecting food production, livelihoods,
and the production and provision of other ecosystem goods
and services.
Desertification in India is projected to be severely
compromised by climate variability and change. Monsoonal
and other weather conditions are unstable, causing major
droughts, floods, cyclones and other natural disasters.
Recently, the years 2002, 2005 and 2009 proved to be
drought years, 2010 was the warmest year and 2002/03
was an extremely cold winter. In addition, 2014 and 2015
have brought hailstorms in Maharashtra, north and central
India. Hailstorms in 2015 caused crop loss in states such
as Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh,
Chattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Thunder squalls
over southern states have affected standing crops. In 2014
Cyclone Hudhud affected states including Andhra Pradesh,
Orissa, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, East
Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, while Cyclone Nilofar
affected Gujarat. In spite of a general increase in temper-
ature over recent decades, extreme rainfall events also
increased over the west coast of India.
Desertification, along with climate change and loss of
biodiversity, were identified as the greatest challenges
to sustainable development during the 1992 Rio Earth
Summit. In addition to climatic variability, climate change
will further challenge the livelihoods of those living in
this sensitive ecosystem and may result in higher levels
of resource scarcity. Using a number of climate models,
different scenarios have been generated for future climate
change in India. It has been projected that average surface
temperature will increase by 2-4 degrees Celsius during the
2050s, with marginal changes in monsoon rain during the
monsoon months (June, July, August and September) and
large changes in rainfall during non-monsoon months. The
number of rainy days is set to decrease by more than 15 days
and the intensity of rains is likely to increase by 1-4 mm/
day. An increase in the frequency and intensity of cyclonic
storms is projected. The hydrological cycle is predicted to
become more intense, with higher annual average rainfall
as well as increased drought.
1
An annual mean area-aver-
aged surface warming over the Indian subcontinent is
predicted to range between 3.5 and 5.6 degrees Celsius over
the region by 2080.
2
These projections show more warming
in the winter season over the summer monsoon. The spatial
distribution of surface warming suggests a mean annual
rise in surface temperatures in north India by 3 degrees
Celsius or more by 2050. A marginal increase of 7-10 per
cent in annual rainfall is projected over the subcontinent
by the year 2080. However, the study suggests a fall in
rainfall by 5-25 per cent in winter with a 10-15 per cent
increase in summer monsoon rainfall over the country.
Because of these projections of future climate change, there
will be increased land degradation owing to droughts, and
increased soil erosion caused by heavy rainfall events. In
addition, climate change may exacerbate desertification
through the alteration of spatial and temporal patterns in
temperature, rainfall, solar radiation and winds.
Although the effects of climate change from anthropogenic
forcing on the use of water resources in the world remain
Climate variability in India, 2000-2014
Source: India Meteorological Department
Southwest monsoon rainfall departure
Year
%
Year
%
2000
-8
2008
-2
2001
-8
2009
-23
2002
-19
2010
+2
2003
+2
2011
+1
2004
-13
2012
-8
2005
-1
2013
+6
2006
-1
2014
-12
2007
+5
Extreme events in India
• 2002 drought
• 20-day heatwave during May 2003 in Andhra Pradesh
• Extreme cold winter in 2002/03
• Drought-like situation in India in July 2004
• Abnormal temperatures during March 2004 and Jan 2005
• Floods in 2005
• Cold wave 2005/06
• Floods in arid Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh and drought in
northeast regions in 2006
• Abnormal temperatures during third week of Jan to first week
of Feb 2007
• All India, severe drought 2009
• 2010 — One of warmest years
• 2011 — Failure of September rains in Andhra Pradesh
• 2012 — Early season drought
• 2013 — Floods and landslides in Uttarakhand
• 2014 — Hailstorms in Maharashtra
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