Climate Exchange

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ealth

the future number of hot days has been calculated

for a several cities in Germany using various regional

climate models.

DWD’s experience and knowledge in climate impact

modelling and assessment of derived information

about future climate in different sectors might also

be applicable to other countries. However, this would

entail adapting DWD’s tools and procedures to specific

circumstances in other countries. DWD will be happy

to support the development and provision of national

climate services in other countries with its experience

and knowledge.

Set. DWD will continue to disseminate heat warnings as they fall

within the list of its legal duties, and as no other institution is

allowed to issue official warnings.

Due to the federal structure of Germany, DWD had to negotiate

cooperation agreements with all 16 Laender individually, as they are

responsible for issuing guidance to organizations for taking action.

A HHWS can only save lives if effective intervention measures are

implemented. As public health intervention has to be triggered by

the Laender health systems, DWD can only influence the effective-

ness of the meteorological component of the HHWS and is not able

to influence the public health component.

As part of the negotiations with the Laender, the users who would

receive DWD’s warnings had to be identified, and technical details

on how to communicate clarified. At first, a long list of fax numbers

and email addresses had to be maintained by DWD. In some of the

Laender the public health authority takes care of distributing the

warnings to end users. DWD has now switched direct distribution of

the warnings to its newsletter system, with end users responsible for

maintaining correct email addresses. A few interfaces in the Laender

still receive the warnings by fax.

As the mass media consists of independent organizations, DWD

has no influence on using this means of communication to dissemi-

nate warnings. Warnings need to be reliable and available on a

routine basis, so DWD must provide them on platforms that it

controls, such as the website and newsletter.

Outlook

A process has been established for monitoring, evaluating and

improving the whole warning system of DWD, of which the HHWS

is just one element. Quality management indices have been iden-

tified for the meteorological component of the HHWS and the

warning mechanism is continually being improved according to

performance against these. Feedback is generally positive and the

service will be continued.

Issues still to be addressed include direct user contact – for

example, how can elderly people, many of whom live alone, be

informed and measures initiated? Another issue is how to better

address indoor climate, as only a few houses in Germany have air

conditioning. As people (and especially the vulnerable popula-

tion) stay indoors most of the time, the German HHWS is currently

extended by the prediction of heat stress in typical rooms, so it is

feasible to forecast heat stress using a combination of outdoor and

indoor predictions. Another issue results from the special climate

in dense urban settlements. DWD is also considering developing

applications for mobile devices for personalized services.

In principle, DWD’s HHWS can be applied in other countries

due its flexible approach to assessing heat load. It has not yet been

directly implemented in another country, but several national mete-

orological and hydrological services (NMHS) have shown a keen

interest. Some have been provided with the underlying Klima-

Michel model, although it isn’t known whether this is being used

for heat load warnings.

Since 2005, DWD’s HHSW has demonstrated its usefulness

during several heat waves and the warnings are widely accepted by

public health authorities. In future, with a warming climate, more

of these warnings can be expected. As an indicator for heat load

affecting human health, the number of hot days for Germany as a

whole is routinely presented in the German Climate Atlas in terms

of historical, present and future climate conditions. In addition,

Image: Cisco Ripac/pixelio.de

Closed blinds protect indoor conditions against the heat outdoors