Climate Exchange

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Mainstreaming climate information

for agricultural activities in Kenya

Peter Ambenje, Samwel Marigi, Samuel Mwangi, Ayub Shaka and William Githungo,

Kenya Meteorological Department

he fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel

on Climate Change has explicitly demonstrated that climate

change is indisputable. In many parts of the world, the

impacts associated with climate change are being observed with

increased frequency and severity. This is so even in Kenya, where

climate-sensitive activities in many socioeconomic sectors such as

agriculture and food security, water resources, energy, health, trans-

port and infrastructure are being affected by changes in the climate

patterns. This is imposing a strain on the vulnerable communi-

ties’ livelihoods, especially agricultural and livestock production.

Fluctuations in the seasonal rainfall patterns lead to instability in

agricultural production and economic hardships. The importance

of adaptation to create resilience of the vulnerable communities to

climate variability and climate change is, therefore, gaining ground.

Effective adaptation to climate variability and climate change is

highly dependent on access to climate information for the coming

seasons and years to support decisions and choices.

Kenya suffers from food insecurity, mainly due to intra-seasonal

and inter-annual variability in rainfall. The relatively high vulner-

ability of the country to climate-induced crises is due to its high

reliance on rainfed agriculture and predominance of agro-ecologies

(arid and semi-arid) that are marginal for crop production. Climate

variability directly or indirectly influences at least 75 per cent of any

agricultural output in the country. In the arid and semi-arid areas,

which constitute nearly 80 per cent of the land area,

rainfall during a crop season can vary from about a third

to two-and-a-half times the normal amounts, making

agriculture a risky enterprise.

Effective measures to manage the impacts of climate

variability have the potential to serve as crucial steps

in helping farmers cope better with the variability in

climate. In a situation where important farming deci-

sions, whose outcome is highly sensitive to the amount

and distribution of rainfall during the season, are to

be made well before knowing the seasonal conditions,

advance information about the rainfall during the

coming season can help farmers make more tactical

decisions about investments and adopt management

practices that make best use of the season. Seasonal

climate forecasts in the range of two to three months in

advance, which also include crucial information such as

the potential onset and cessation times of rainfall, are

vital for farm-level decision-making.

However, weather forecast information is still not as

widely used as it should be by end users (farmers) due to:

•

Limited clarity on what forecast formats are best

suited to user needs, though it is known that the

optimal format may vary between applications

•

Complexities in the use of information, which may

lead to further difficulties if inappropriately used

•

Fragmented production and delivery systems which

sometimes make it difficult for forecasts to reach the

end users who may have a particular need for them

•

End users’ perceived need for temporal and spatial

detail (such as exact rainfall amounts, onset and

cessation dates) in the prediction that currently

cannot be achieved

•

Lack of awareness of the significance of factoring

weather/climate information into planning.

Currently, weather forecast information does not guide

location-specific decision-making by users. This is,

however, information that can be sourced from the

national meteorological and hydrological services

on request. Additionally, the current major means of

disseminating forecast information (print media and

internet) do not adequately convey the messages to end

users. In some other instances, users get the message

when it is too late to apply it in decision-making.

griculture

Image: KMD

Farmers consult with experts from technical institutions to plan ahead