Climate Exchange

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griculture

forecast. By this time the Ewaso Nyiro River had dried up in Isiolo

and retracted to the upper catchment areas. The forecast indicated

that in August there would be good rains in the Aberdares Hills,

source of the Ewaso Nyiro River, but not in Isiolo. These rains

would revive the river, causing some flooding at Isiolo. At the

time, herders had moved far from the river looking for pasture and

water. This information was immediately interpreted by the pasto-

ralists to mean flooding would rejuvenate green grass and water

and give their animals strength to go through the remaining dry

spell (September-October 2011). Indeed, good rainfall was realized

in Aberdares Hills in August and the Ewaso Nyiro River flooded

a large area in Isiolo. A lot of pasture was regenerated, which saw

animals through the dry spell. Consequently, the community did

not lose animals.

On 3 October 2011, when a meeting was called to give the

October-November-December 2011 (OND 2011) rain season

forecast to the pastoralists, there was very good feedback for the

June-July-August 2011 advisory. Participants were very apprecia-

tive of the timely and good quality early warning information and

advisory. The OND 2011 rain season forecast again favoured Isiolo

with normal to slightly enhanced rainfall. This time, the advisory

was for the herders to leave the flood plains by 10 October, since in

the Aberdares Hills, the rains were expected to start by the second

week of October and the Ewaso Nyiro River would flood. The rains

in Isiolo would start in the third week of October and make the situ-

ation even worse, marooning herders in the flood plains. Indeed, by

8 October, the river water level had increased. When the seasonal

rains started in Isiolo County, in the third week of October, the river

experienced serious flooding. Luckily the Provincial Administration

(chiefs, district officers and district commissioners) had mobilized

herders to leave the flood plains in good time. Again, this informa-

tion increased the pastoralists’ confidence in the forecast and they

saved their animals.

During another meeting on 7 March 2012 at Merti, Isiolo County,

the pastoralists were given the March-April-May 2012 seasonal

forecast with rains expected to be in the below normal

levels. Despite these expectations, the pastoralists were

not worried because there was still a lot of dry pasture

in the county. However, they were cautioned to be

on the lookout of bush fires which could burn all the

pasture. This time they were convinced the weather

forecasts were reliable. They said they would use the

information to plan their grazing patterns to see them-

selves through the dry spell.

Participatory scenario planning

The Adaptation Learning Programme implemented by

CARE International in Africa is supporting communi-

ties and local governments in Garissa County to use

seasonal climate forecasts and uncertainty for decision-

making as part of its community-based adaptation

approach in collaboration with KMD.

Participatory scenario planning (PSP) is regarded

as a mechanism for collective sharing and interpre-

tation of climate forecasts. PSP is conducted as soon

as a seasonal climate forecast is available from mete-

orological services – that is, as many times in the

year as there are rainy seasons in that particular area.

A workshop that brings together meteorologists,

community members, local government departments

and local non-governmental organizations to share

their knowledge on climate forecasts is held over one

or two days. The workshop creates space for sharing

climate information from both local and scientific

knowledge, discussing and appreciating the value of

the two sources, and finding ways to interpret the

information into a form that is locally relevant and

useable. This is achieved by participants consider-

ing climatic probabilities (which are an expression

of the uncertainty in the climate forecast), assessing

their likely hazards, risks, opportunities and impacts,

and developing scenarios based on the assessment.

Discussion of the potential implications of these

scenarios on livelihoods leads to agreement on plans

and contingencies that respond to the levels of risk

and uncertainty.

Climate scenarios equip communities and local

governments with information for use in decision-

making on diversification of livelihood options, risk

management and preparedness to deal with disasters.

This is so even when the scenario is for a poor season.

Timely access to and communication of seasonal

climate advisories from PSP empowers communities

to take advantage of the opportunities that climate

presents, which is a key part of adapting to climate

change. This is achieved through developing plans that

make the best use of resources to improve livelihoods

while managing risks. In Garissa, Kenya, for example,

the expected enhanced rainfall in October-December

2011 was a chance to improve agricultural production

by making plans to harvest water and store it for use

during dry periods, expanding the area of land under

cultivation as more water is available for growing crops

and the flooding brings in deposits of fertile soils.

After hearing the seasonal forecast for good rains in October-December 2011,

Noor Jelle, a farmer from Nanighi village in Garissa County, planted more

improved maize seed supplied by the Kenya Ministry of Agriculture – resulting in

this bumper maize harvest

Image: KMD