Climate Exchange

Administration. In that way, the end user and policy-

maker can make effective use of climate information.

Perspective

The warming climate is accompanied by changes in the

mean and extreme climates, and both have large impacts

on the society and economy of China.

Statistically,

annual meteorological disasters account for 3-6 per cent

of China’s gross domestic product during the 1990s,

with a larger percentage in the years featuring signifi-

cant climate anomalies. In recent years, those disasters

tend to intensify and lead to more severe losses to the

national economy, human life and property, resulting in

a variety of key social and environmental problems. In

particular, to a great extent, meteorological disasters are

directly caused by extreme climates. For example, the

freezing rain in southern China in January 2008 caused

economic losses of about CNY151 billion and the death

of 129 people, and the torrential rain and landslide in

Zhouqu County of Northwest China in 2010 resulted

in the death of 1,501 people. Climate change studies

and their services are at a preliminary stage. In future

works, there is an urgent need to further examine the

nature and cause of climate change over a wide range

of time and spatial scales in China. Understanding the

observed changes in various kinds of mean and extreme

climates, improving the ability of climate models in

reproducing observed changes, and improving the tech-

niques of projecting future changes in both dynamical

and statistical approaches are equally important tasks.

Finally, climate products such as seasonal and decadal

predictions and long-term climate change projections

can better serve Chinese society.

around CNY145 billion. In this situation, it is important to perform

seasonal climate prediction to meet the needs of defence against

meteorological disasters. Accordingly, seasonal climate prediction

is always emphasized in the field of climate change. In that area,

both statistical and dynamical approaches have been applied in

seasonal precipitation prediction by the Chinese Meteorological

Administration. A statistical approach, such as the year-to-year

increment approach, is based on a comprehensive study of the rela-

tionship between regional precipitation and the preceding climate

conditions such as snow cover on the Eurasian continent, the El

Niño–Southern Oscillation, soil moisture, Arctic Oscillation and

Antarctic Oscillation, after which a regression equation for predic-

tion is established. The dynamical approach is based on numerical

experiments of climate models. For the two-tiered method, global

sea surface temperatures are first predicted by an oceanic or atmos-

phere-ocean general circulation model, and then used to force an

atmospheric general circulation model to forecast atmospheric

elements. For the one-tier method, the seasonal prediction system

is generally composed of an atmosphere-ocean general circula-

tion model and a data assimilation system. Since China and East

Asia are areas with low prediction skill on seasonal precipitation,

statistical downscaling and dynamical downscaling have also been

used to perform seasonal prediction. In addition, error correction

schemes have also been applied in practice.

The aforementioned effort has improved China’s regional

climate prediction skills on the seasonal scale. The related climate

prediction product has also served society. For example, seasonal

precipitation prediction has been carried out by several research

centres and universities, and their results are collected by the

National Climate Center. All experts in that field are organized

together to discuss the forthcoming climate change at regional

and national scales. The final prediction products for key climatic

variables will be publicly issued by the Chinese Meteorological

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apacity

evelopment

Others

Agriculture,

forestry,

biology

Ocean

Meteorology

71%

Earthquake

(a)

(a) Mean percentage of economy losses caused by different disasters, and (b) mean percentage of economy losses caused by

different meteorology disasters in China in recent decades

Source: Huang, 1999

27%

Typhoon,

hail

11%

Others

Droughts

55%

Floods

27%

(b)