Climate Exchange

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apacity

evelopment

climate predictions, BCC makes a pre-assessment of potential

agro-meteorological disaster risks for the next month by the end

of current month, and produces the Express Bulletin of Climate

Impact Assessment on Agriculture, which is delivered to the

Ministry of Agriculture Department of Crop Production.

• Pre-assessment and estimation of climatic conditions for criti-

cal farming seasons – BCC conducts the impact pre-assessment

based on climate prediction information including spring

seeding conditions in South China and south of Yangtze River,

initial frost date, cold dew wind in the south, low temperature

in the north-east in summer, and the forest and grassland forest

danger index. In December every year, BCC produces an Annual

Outlook on Agro-meteorology based on the annual climate

prediction and analysis.

Work process and mechanisms

CMA is a competent government agency responsible for provid-

ing various climate services. CMA provides not only basic data and

prediction services, but also information for the public, government

and special users in support of their decision-making. It focuses

primarily on addressing climate risks, response to meteorologi-

cal disasters, and the use of climate resources. For last 10 years,

CMA has established this mechanism for climate service delivery in

combination of government leadership, multi-sectoral synergy and

social participation.

So far, CMA has effectively cooperated with the Ministry of

Agriculture, Ministry of Water Resources, Ministry of Land and

Resources, State Forestry Administration and the Ministry of Health.

The products and information generated through collaborations

have played an active role in socioeconomic activities, disaster

prevention and preparedness.

Consultation process

The national experts in the field of climate prediction

gather to address the issues related to the flood-prone

season predictions from different perspectives. After

different units independently complete their individual

forecasts, the National Climate Center will take the lead

in organizing a national consultation meeting to achieve

a consensus-based prediction for the flood-prone

season, inviting the main research institutes, univer-

sities, provincial climate operational units and related

service centres engaged in climate prediction. Through

the consultation, they will elaborate and discuss the

national climate trends of the upcoming flood season

in the current year, and reach a consensus by consider-

ing comments from the different units. The National

Climate Center will submit the final result to CMA for

official release.

Prediction methodology

Climate trend prediction for the flood-prone season

in China began in the 1950s, and it has gone through

several stages since then. Early on, CMA mainly used

statistical correlations and an analysis approach to

make flood-prone season forecasts, and established a

number of objective statistical methods for quantita-

tive prediction later on. With the ocean-atmosphere

coupled model developed by the National Climate

Center being put into operation in 2005, the dynamic

model – and prediction methods combining statis-

tics with dynamics – have played a more important

role in preparing predictions for a flood-prone season.

Image: BCC

Climate Prediction Consultation Meeting for Summer Season