Climate Exchange

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griculture

The CPT uses multivariable techniques, such as canonical correla-

tion and principal components analysis, to construct a statistical

model for predicting the accumulated seasonal precipitation and

average extreme temperatures.

Of relevant importance for developing seasonal climate predic-

tions in Chile, and for their application in the agriculture sector,

has been the participation of the DMC in the Regional Climate

Forums organized by the International Centre on El Niño

Research (CIIFEN) and World Meteorological Organization since

the beginning of 2000. Thus, for example, a specific application of

climate information to meet the needs of local farmers and to help

them in reducing the socioeconomic impact of climate in farming

activity was developed,

through a CIIFEN-led project called

‘Applied Climate Information for agriculture risk management in

the Andes countries’. The project also presented the opportunity

of implementing the Mesoscale Climate Model – version 5 for

the first time in Chile, and to run monthly numerical simulation

with a resolution of 10, 30 and 90 kilometres. Now, new compu-

ter facilities implemented in the Weather Service during the first

quarter of 2012 will permit the initiation of a new development in

seasonal prediction, with the agriculture sector being one of the

main beneficiaries of the improved spatial resolution of climate

model outputs.

In this way, DMC has developed a seasonal climate forecast called

Agroclimate Outlook, in addition to providing daily weather serv-

ices including those for the agriculture activities. This is elaborated

during the first half of each month and it predicts the precipita-

tion accumulation and average extreme air temperatures (minimum

and maximum) for the next three-month period with implications

for the agriculture sector. This seasonal forecast is based on the

ENSO prediction. The statistical predicted values obtained by

the CPT model are compared with the observations obtained for

the 1980-2010 period. For that, percentile 33 and 66 values were

determined for precipitation and air temperature, to define below-

normal, normal and above-normal levels. Thus for precipitation,

the predicted values can fall in the drought (below-normal), normal

or rainy (above-normal) season. For temperature, the predicted

values can forecast a cold (below-normal), normal or warm (above-

normal) season. This information has become an important input

for farmers and other agriculture-related users who can use it to plan

and make decisions at least 30 days in advance. In this context, the

DMC disseminates the seasonal climate outlook to users through its

website

and meetings coordinated with agriculture organizations.

The bulletin includes information that contributes to making

decisions according to the current hydrological scenario (excess

or deficit). This enables users to take advantage of their advance

knowledge of the likely amount of precipitation expected for the

next three-month period, so they can optimize their storage and

distribution, or take actions to mitigate the negative impact of excess

precipitation or water shortages. The bulletin also contributes to

evaluating forage availability, estimating agriculture water demands

according to plant phenology, assessing risk for drought prone areas

and so on. On the other hand, estimation of the thermal factor is

important for various agriculture activities – for example, the

implication of the air temperature on pollination and fruit growth;

evaluating and correlating plant growth and freezing periods,

estimating the state of the environmental for farm animal birth

periods, and freezing hour accumulation for olive plantation and

harvest planning. In summer, the maximum air temperature fore-

cast is important not only for the possible occurrence

of heat waves, but also for the dangerous development

and propagation of fires that can destroy forests and

agriculture areas, plagues and other plant diseases. In

other seasons, the information can be used for planning

activities such as ground preparedness, crops, pasture

management, preparation of silos, use of agro-chemi-

cals, transportation, rotating pasture and so on.

The Agroclimate Outlook is published monthly on

the website of the Ministry of Agriculture (MINAGRI),

particularly in the agrometeorological portal.

Thus, the

bulletin is widely disseminated in the country and freely

available to all users. In addition, MINAGRI sends a

remainder to all registered users by email when the

latest bulletin is available on the website. Monthly infor-

mation available on the MINAGRI website includes:

• A National Executive Summary presenting the

seasonal Agroclimate Outlook (including mete-

orological parameters and the El Niño – La Niña

situation) and a summary of regional recommenda-

tions for agriculture activity.

• The Agroclimatic Risk Analysis bulletin, produced

by the National Institute of Agriculture Research for

the main fruit trees and crops. It analyses the risk

for agriculture production in relation to the mete-

orological situation and seasonal prediction.

• Reports from the Fruit Development Foundation

about the analysis of possible agroclimatic risks to

tree fruit species. This is similar to the Agroclimatic

Risk Analysis bulletin but it centres the analysis on

the tree fruit species in each region.

• The Regional Agroclimatic Bulletin, which analyses

the agroclimatic situation based on data provide by

the agroclimate network

and the seasonal predic-

tion produced by DMC.

In general, these bulletins use the meteorological

seasonal prediction produced by DMC to evaluate the

probable implications on different agriculture activities

within the forecast period, making recommendations

to the farmer for mitigating possible negative conse-

quences or taking advantage of favourable climate

conditions for their production.

Preliminary evaluation of the Agroclimate Outlook

indicates its high value for users due to the quality and

quantitative information that it includes – information

that is used by farmers, specialized users and policy-

makers for taking informed decisions. Interaction with

and feedback from end users has been important in the

development and improvement of this bulletin, as it

has emphasized the aspects that are of real interest and

that constitute a contribution to agriculture activity.

The Ministry of Agriculture has played an important

role in participating and contributing to making the

bulleting available to agriculture users. Today the

bulletin is distributed monthly through emails and

personal presentations, not only to the farmers, but

also to authorities, policymakers, associations and

general users.