Climate Exchange

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griculture

been made or are being made with the UK Met Office and Bureau

of Meteorology for the development of suitably designed, more

targeted output systems.

Funding

The above programme for the Queensland sugar industry is directly

funded as a research and development project by QSL ($A2.7m

plus all data and travel costs). Thus, following earlier funding by

a research and development corporation through levies made on

the value of crops harvested in any year, the funding is now being

provided directly from the private sector. This process was neces-

sary because climate science and developments in seasonal climate

forecasting could provide obvious benefits to all sectors of the

Queensland sugar industry, which was suffering massive losses,

especially in La Niña years.

The project has a five-year timescale with plans to provide

continuous funding beyond that if the research and development

and ongoing output is deemed to be successful in aiding deci-

sion-making across the industry, especially in the exporting and

marketing sectors.

Making it happen

There are four key institutions involved in climate forecast and crop

modelling provision:

• USQ – climate science, engineering, remote sensing, aspects of

downscaling, farmer education, and project leadership

• JCU – key aspects of crop simulation modelling

• UK Met Office (through a research agreement) – research

involving the capability of a new generation of climate models

(UK Met Office and ECMWF) for the sugar industry in

Queensland; provision of data feeds from current GCM outputs

• Bureau of Meteorology – provision of outputs from POAMA/

ACCESS model into an integrated overall modelling system;

provision of generalized output involving the Madden Julian

Oscillation, including information provided by the Tropical

Climate Bulletin.

The current project development involves QSL, Queensland Cane

Growers’ Council (head office and all branch offices) and the

Queensland Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries

(both head office and the Mackay regional office).

It should be noted that the above activity is currently within a

research and development framework. If deemed successful by all

sectors of the sugar industry, especially the marketing

and export sections of the overall value chain, then

an operational system involving regular provision of

output will be provided by a combined team compris-

ing the UK Met Office and the Australian Bureau of

Meteorology, the current operational statistical seasonal

climate forecast system in use in Queensland and also

used by the Queensland Government, and crop model

output runs developed by USQ and JCU.

Evaluation

A full feedback process conducted through intensive

workshops is an integral part of the project. The research

project will be evaluated against agreed milestones in

October 2012. Each workshop is evaluated through

use of a carefully designed questionnaire provided to

each participant. The project and project funding (and

follow-up services) will be adjusted in light of the

evaluation received, especially by the donors. Aspects

related to climate change are not directly included in

the project.

Capacities

At present, mostly existing personnel have been

engaged in the research project and development stages

of this work. These include two climate scientists (one

at PhD level), one mathematics/statistics specialist (at

PhD level) one sugar cane crop simulation modelling

specialist (PhD level), one specialist extension office

(at MSc level) and computer programming project

support staff.

It is probably a mistake to regard the separation of

capabilities according to whether individuals are ‘users’

or ‘developers’. In this project there are two climate

scientists with very extensive research publication and

operational capabilities, located at USQ. They interact

with key climate scientists at the UK Met Office and the

Bureau of Meteorology, and they also have the capacity

to liaise directly with agronomists and crop model-

lers engaged at JCU. Key user agencies such as QSL or

Queensland Cane Growers’ Council do not have climate

scientists on their staff; rather, they employ chemical

engineers or environmental scientists.

Some capacities are lacking. It can be difficult to

locate climate scientists within national organizations

who have the required breadth of understanding of the

computerized interfacing needs in linking a climate

model to a crop simulation model, for example. Rather

complex software development is needed that can inte-

grate all modelling and output systems involving a

wide range of expertise. Additional challenges involve

the sheer effort required in developing legal agreements

between agencies and associated activity.

A massive amount of innovation is needed if one is

serious about linking climate science with real decision-

making, especially if the output required is much more

than normal climate variables, such as ‘tons of sugar

per hectare’ or similar. The key innovation is in devel-

opment of engineering and software systems that can

Source: USQ/JCU

Example of forecasting probability values of excessive rainfall

– Macknade Sugar Mill, North Queensland (values shaded in

green are statistically significant)

rainfall

aug/sep

jul/aug

jun/jul

may/jun

apr/may

mar/apr

feb/mar

0.05

0.00

0.06

0.13

0.23

0.47

0.46

0.56

0.41

0.32

0.29

0.10

0.30

0.13

0.25

0.21

0.06

0.13

0.23

0.32

0.26

0.43

0.39

0.38

0.25

0.22

lead

(mths) response

SOI

period Neg Pos

32032 Macknade

Fal

Ris Neu

0.21

0.16

0.10

0.19

0.30