Climate Exchange

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griculture

Data section and subsequently be used as input for

downstream models. All data are attached to a personal

user profile and can be shared among different users.

The Tools section contains information on all the past

model runs. Furthermore, a document section is avail-

able, which contains information on all the models.

Lessons learned

The MOSAICC toolbox is a complex project, because

it assimilates different methodological approaches in

a comprehensive manner. The inherent complexities

originate from the social, physical and technical interac-

tions which all have their own sources of uncertainty. A

model’s performance depends on many variables such as

quality of input data, model structure, calibration, and

validation. The MOSAICC toolbox is not flawless from

a scientific technical perspective. However, the goals of

the project reach much further than simple technical

model integration. The MOSAICC toolbox is actually

a very novel and innovative approach to developing,

comparing and evaluating the impact of climate change

in an interactive way, where state-of-the-art technolo-

gies are used in a bottom-up management strategy.

MOSAICC is a tool used to develop institutions’

technical capacities to produce information on

climate change and agriculture; in agreement with

the Principles of the Global Framework for Climate

Services. Furthermore, partnerships are designed in a

way to transfer the ownership of the MOSAICC system

to the institutions and eventually to involve the partners

in the development, the testing and dissemination of

the system.

tion, commodities can be produced by different activities. The CGE

is based on activities, commodities and regions. Data from other

models are aggregated before being entered into to the CGE. The

model accounts for different crops as well as differentiated crop

yields across the country. The effect of crop yield variations is simu-

lated using a shift parameter in the activity production functions.

The model provides estimations for all the endogenous variables

(such as commodity prices, imports, taxes, household income and

savings). A set of inputs (benchmark) including values of all these

variables at a given time is used to calibrate the model. Then when

shocks are simulated using the exogenous variables (changing crop

yields for example), these variables get new values (output). The

effects of changing yields can be assessed by comparing benchmark

and ‘shocked’ situations. Climate change can affect agricultural

production. First, yield changes predicted by one of the crop models

(WABAL or AQUACROP) are passed on to the economic model

through exogenous shocks to a technical shift parameter in the

production function. Changes in the availability of irrigation water

predicted by the STREAM model are passed to the economic model

through an exogenous decrease of the water endowment.

Results

The MOSAICC toolbox is still in development stage, and no

in-depth testing has yet been carried out. The alpha version of the

interface is divided into five different sections: Home, Functions,

Data, Tools and Documents. In the Functions section, all models can

be accessed. All models are displayed as separate models, for which

the input data and parameters can be specified by browsing through

different pages. Climate scenarios can be downscaled and upscaled

through space and time and calibrated with in situ data. After speci-

fying all input data, the selected model can be run. The input and

output data are stored on the server; they can be explored in the

Image: courtesy of Roberto Sandoval

MOSAICC system training