Climate Sense

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Observing , Predicting and PrOjecting c limate c OnditiOns
Less well known, but another economically important seasonal
forecast for the Caribbean region is the Precipitation Outlook (www.
), which is produced by the Caribbean
Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) and covers six
consecutive three-month periods during the year. Forecasts presented
in the Precipitation Outlook are based on both subjective consid-
erations (the professional judgment of the forecaster) and objective
considerations that include outputs from statistical and dynamic
models. The dynamical models used include global models and,
where applicable, regional models. The overall strategy used to create
the Precipitation Outlook therefore includes model outputs; moni-
tored and forecast climatic indices known to exhibit correlations
with Caribbean precipitation and temperatures; and knowledge of
regional climatic conditions and global relationships. Unfortunately,
few model outputs that are regularly updated (for example, that from
the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) cover
the Caribbean region at a high enough resolution to be extremely
informative to the small states of the region. To develop such infor-
mation, global climate models must be downscaled using statistical
methods. Unfortunately, these methods introduce some level of
subjectivity into the modelling process. To address this matter, the
CIMH is currently expanding its computational facilities to assist the
regular running of dynamic models on a regional scale.
A recently implemented forecast product in the region is the
Caribbean Drought and Precipitation Monitoring Network
(CDPMN), which forecasts the precipitation status across the
Caribbean over one, three, six, and twelve month intervals (www.
). The CDPMN is a CIMH product
funded in part by the Caribbean Water Initiative, which is a joint
programme between the Brace Centre at McGill University, Canada
and CIMH. The Canadian International Development Agency
funds the overall initiative.
Other countries within the Americas are also leading the way in
producing seasonal forecasts. The Cuban meteorological service
Instìtuto de Meteorologìa de la República de Cuba, for example,
produces one and six month outlooks of precipitation and temper-
ature across the various zones in Cuba.4 Other regions within the
Americas such as Central America and South America are also
participating in similar activities in an effort to support social and
economic activities.
Support for strategic planning
Strategic planning takes into account the respective activi-
ties of the various stakeholders, the objectives of the
organization, and known constraints (available or potential
resources, organizational capacity and existing regulations)
to ensure achievement of objectives, the sustainability of
the organization and maximization of the return on invest-
ment. The Precipitation Outlook and CDPMN are two
CIMH climate products that are integral to forming strate-
gic plans for climate sensitive industries in the Caribbean.
These two products form part of CIMH’s ongoing strategic
thrust into the provision of climate services, a provision that
is an important component of the World Meteorological
Organization’s (WMO) new strategic direction. Both the
Precipitation Outlook and CDPMN are gaining in popular-
ity, with the former, whichhas a longer andmore established
history, being used routinely by several agricultural plan-
ners and water resources managers. Two limitations of the
existing Precipitation Outlook are that it provides only a
three-month forecast and that its output requires a certain
level of sophistication to interpret. The latter limitation,
which is a significant concern, is being addressed by staff
at CIMH. Other areas where the Precipitation Outlook
and CDPMN can be applied include: forecasting seasonal
flood risk, which represents an area of considerable interest
to the insurance and disaster management communities;
and seasonal forest fire risk, which is important for forest-
based industries and services (for example, the Iwokrama
International Centre for Rainforest Conservation and
Development in Guyana).
The insufficiency of climate data for the Caribbean
presents a significant challenge to the development and
validation of climate services and products. Although
considerable data may has been collected in the region over
the last 50 to 100 years, much of this data remains on paper
thereby making it unusable for analysis and interpreta-
tion. Efforts are underway to encourage donor and grant
funding institutions to support conversion of this data into
electronic databases. In addition several projects including:
Carib-HYCOS, which is funded by the French govern-
ment and represents a component of the WMO World
Hydrological Cycle Observing System initiative; Caribbean
Disaster Management Project Phase II, funded by the Japan
International Cooperation Agency and implemented by
the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency;
and Enhancing Resilience to Reduce Vulnerability in the
Caribbean funded by the Italian government and imple-
mented by the United Nations Development Programme,
will establish new hydro-meteorology networks and asso-
ciated databases in the Caribbean region. Information
provided for these new networks will support numerous
climate change and seasonal climate forecasting, as well as
validation initiatives.
It is the goal of CIMH and other Caribbean institutions
to increase the number of seasonal forecasts they provide
in order to support strategic planning and to ensure there
are no unexpected climate-related events or effects that may
adversely impact the region’s socioeconomic development
or result in significant loss of life.
SPI for April 2009
CDPMN generated standard precipitation index (SPI) for the Caribbean region
for April 2009
Source: