Climate Sense

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bserving

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and community levels to findmore sustainablemechanisms

of climate change adaptation.

In this context, climate information and related dissemi-

nation plays an essential role in the PACC. On the level of

the regional governments – and especially on the level of

local governments – important gaps have been identified

with respect to information on climate, climate change and

related impacts. Access to, and adequately prepared analy-

sis of, climate information is key for short-term response

as well as in the longer-term sustainable design and imple-

mentation of adaptation measures. New and improved

early warning systems, for instance, may help farmers take

early measures against upcoming droughts, or prepare

themselves before immediate hail events. One of the chal-

lenges in this context is a smooth line of information and

communication from the relevant national institutions to

the regional agencies, and eventually to the local level. The

PACC is thereby in a particularly promising position since

it involves all these levels.

However, preparation and communication of relevant

and useful climate information by scientists for end-users is

complex and spans several levels. This can be illustrated by

the contrast between a scientific climatemodeler producing

scenario runs, and an indigenous herdsman in the Andes

whomay need climate information tailored to his needs, and

possibly even more importantly, to his cultural and social

context. Without a deeper knowledge of the local cultural

context it is nearly impossible for the climate modeler to

produce the right kind of information. It is vital to include

the human dimension in the process of climate information

and communication. While climate projections, such as the

example above, may be important for a climate scientist, for

a local farmer in the Andes they are not. The spatial reso-

lution is much too coarse and the time horizon of several

decades too far ahead, and essentially, he is not able to inter-

pret such a graphic. The inability to interpret this kind of

graphic may also apply for authorities in local or regional

governments. In fact, recent studies in Peru have shown,

that on the level of regional governments there may exist a

gap in understanding climate change information, such as

future climate projections.

The traditional knowledge of

local communities on past climate change, as well as related

adaptation experiences, can be important to consider for

current and future adaptation. However, climate is increas-

ingly changing beyond the historical experience of local

people and it therefore needs to be investigated carefully

how best to use traditional adaptation strategies in the face

of new challenges.

A further difficulty is the communication of uncertainties

that are inherent to climate times series, climate projec-

tions and climate change impacts. The difficulty pervades

communication at several levels, from science to interna-

tional and national policy levels, to the public and the local

level. In climate science uncertainties have been an impor-

tant issue for quite a while, but they have only recently been

systematically approached in the field of climate change

adaptation.

The key for adaptation projects such as the

PACC is to find adaptationmeasures that are robust against

uncertainties but feasible to implement.

the Peruvian Andes. This due mainly to the region’s strong incidence

of natural climate variability. In general, a temperature increase of up

to 0.3°C a decade has been observed, but this pattern is not homo-

geneous.

For the Urubamba catchment in Cusco the temperature

has increased by about 0.4°C a decade.

Furthermore, annual precip-

itation shows a decreasing trend for the southern Peruvian Andes

over the last five decades, but the trend is less clear on a monthly

or seasonal basis.

Trends for extreme precipitation events have

not yet been sufficiently analysed, while climate projections for the

region still bear considerable uncertainties as well.

Hence, there is

a strong need to improve the scientific baseline concerning the type

and magnitude of climate change impacts on the local and regional

level using appropriate downscaling methods. Thorough analysis of

existing long-term climate series should be a fundamental part of any

impact assessments. Because of this, the typically poor data availabil-

ity for the Andean regions proves an especial problem – emphasizing

the importance of improving current monitoring networks and inte-

grating additional data sources – such as satellite data.

Climate information for improved adaptation

The PACC takes an interdisciplinary and interinstitutional approach.

The analysis of cross-sector effects through the thematic lines of water

resources, food security and natural disasters is thereby important.

The human dimension is integrated in this concept to allow for a more

complete viewon vulnerabilities to climate change. Abetter understanding

of people’s perception of climate change – its risks and potential adapta-

tion strategies – as well as their perception of different local, regional

and national actors will enable improved design of adaptation mecha-

nisms. It is particularly important to maintain an integrative perspective

in this context, because the impacts of climate change are multiple and

their severity, potential damage and cost need to be analysed in an inte-

grated framework. Corresponding methodologies, however, are poorly

developed on the local level and therefore need to be advanced. The

interdisciplinary approach andmulti-actor environment encompassed by

the PACC represents both its strength and complexity. The PACC repre-

sents a major opportunity to improve the dialogue between the scientific

community, implementing agencies and practitioners, and the political

An example of climate projections. Mean specific humidities are

shown for June 2046-2065 for South America

IPCC-AR4 based results from four Global Circulation Models lack detail as to

whether the dry austral winters in Cusco and Apurímac will be even drier in future

Source: IPCC