Climate Sense

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bserving

, P

redicting

and

rojecting

limate

onditions

such as Global Monitoring for the Environment and Security, which

pioneers EU activities towards operational environmental services.

The Joint Research Centre of the European Commission also partici-

pates in important initiatives regarding capacity for monitoring and

assimilating space-based climate change observations.

On adaptation to climate change the projects ADAM,

ClimateCost

and CCTAME

are providing innovative results

and policy relevant outputs. The focus on research for adaptation

has been strengthened in most calls for proposals in the activity

‘Environment (including climate change).’

Currently, the progress in observation, climate modelling, impacts

and vulnerability studies is not sufficient to meet the needs of opera-

tional climate services. The establishment of means for the provision

of climate services as proposed by WCC-3 will need to set new foun-

dations for the provision and use of science-based climate information

and prediction. Precise and detailed forecasts of the consequences of

climate change at temporal and spatial scales corresponding to the

needs of society will require a further leap forward in understanding,

as well as sustained efforts in climate research and observation.

One of the scientific challenges to be met is to develop the capacity

for providing a seamless climate prediction system that can provide

forecasts at all relevant timescales (seasonal, multi-annual, decadal

and multi-decadal). The framework to be established aims to make

such forecasts available on the geographical scale relevant to regional

projections, vulnerability assessment and for the design of adaptation

measures. Bridging the gap in the timescales covered by the model

forecasts will require both extending medium-range weather forecast

tools (mostly used for meteorological purposes) to longer timescales

and increasing the accuracy of climate forecasts (from multi-decadal

to decadal) over shorter forecasting periods. Such conver-

gence would represent a big leap forward. It will require

continued support tomodel development and the extensive

use of models . It will also necessitate close collaboration

between modellers and observation experts to ensure that

simulations integrate the most recent and up-to-date data

sets with the most relevant data assimilation techniques.

From a user perspective, climate predictions need to be

reliable in order to be useful. Therefore the measurement

of model predicting skills is part of the overall challenge

of the provision of climate services.

There is no silver bullet, no single mega-model that

will bring all the responses needed. Progress will come

from sustained collaboration between meteorologists,

climatologists, impacts and vulnerability assessment

scientists, and experts from other disciplines, includ-

ing social sciences and the user community. From an

institutional perspective, such endeavours can best be

achieved through close collaboration between the EU

and its Member States, and the relevant UN agencies,

as well as by the structuring of various major initia-

tives through international research programmes.

The European Commission has addressed, and will

continue to address, the research needs posed by

the provision of climate services. It will sustain its

funding efforts and ensure that the research priorities

identified by the high level taskforce of independent

advisers established by the conclusions of WCC-3 are

given due consideration.

Precise and detailed forecasts of climate change consequences will require a further leap forward in understanding