Climate Sense

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daptation

and

itigation

trategies

The potential effects of climate change on the devel-

opment of vector-borne illnesses is uncertain. Higher

temperatures could generate new vectors or cause a

vector to change its host. With illnesses transmitted

by ticks, there may be changes in the range of vectors,

infection rates and period of activity. The setup of a

monitoring system for the various vector-borne diseases

is an essential part of developing timely, adequate meas-

ures and action plans for the protection of human and

animal health.

Impacts on the economic sector

Within the Swiss economic sector, the impacts on

tourism will be the costliest. The rising winter snow

line means that ski resorts in the foothills of the Alps

are likely to struggle increasingly to operate profit-

ably. Furthermore, the expected higher number of

tourists in summer will not compensate for the loss of

income mountain railways and the hotel sector experi-

ence in winter. Ski resorts located at high elevations

may possibly benefit. However, the increasing threat

of extreme events such as mudslides and flooding, is

likely to impinge on traffic routes and thus the acces-

sibility of tourist resorts in the Alps. The attractiveness

of alpine tourist areas is also likely to suffer as a result

of decreasing or highly variable snow cover, as well

as from expected changes in the natural scenery. For

tourist destinations to remain competitive, leisure activ-

ities must adapt to new conditions, while destination

offerings will have to be broadened so that they are less

dependent on annual snowfall. It is essential to take

possible climatic changes, and changes in landscape,

into consideration when planning for new tourism

infrastructures.

In the energy sector, the diminishing runoff and

decreasing cooling effect of rivers – especially in

summer – will have an adverse effect on hydropower

and nuclear energy production. Annual power produc-

tion is expected to decline a few per cent by 2050. On

the other hand, less heating energy will be required in

winter and more cooling energy in summer. This will

mean a shift in the energy demand from fuel to elec-

tricity. It is essential to fill this gap between decreasing

power production and increasing electricity demand

by improving energy efficiency, as well as by establish-

ing new renewable power sources. Renewable energy is

expected to become more competitive due to increasing

energy prices. The current focus is primarily on energy

gained from solar radiation, wind and wood. If long-

term trends and the development of the forestry and

timber industries are considered, the potential of wood

as an energy source may triple.

Swiss agriculture is expected to profit from a moder-

ate warming of temperature if it is less than 2 to 3°C

– assuming that the supply of water and nutrients is

sufficient and that suitable crops, as well as suitable

cultivation and management methods, are chosen. The

productivity of meadows and the potential crop yield

of many plants will increase as a result of the longer

One of the biggest concerns in Switzerland with respect to climate

change is the evolution of natural hazards. The retreat of Alpine glaciers

will result in a decrease in slope stability and an increase inmudslides and

rockfalls – as experienced in the resort town of Grindelwald in 2006. In

addition, the thawing of permafrost represents a costly risk for a vast array

of transport infrastructures in themountains – including railways, chair-

lifts and cable cars – as at higher elevations the foundations of pylons

and stations are often anchored in the frozen ground. Higher tempera-

tures could loosen such foundations and destabilize entire installations.

Possible adaptivemeasures include detailedmonitoring of critical regions

and erecting protective structures to shelter residential areas as well as

infrastructures. Furthermore, the damage potential in critical areas could

be reduced by changing structural planning in rural areas.

The risk of floods is expected to increase as a result of the growing

frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events. This risk is

further aggravated by the fact that precipitation increasingly falls as

rain instead of snow, due to higher average temperatures. Potential

measures to tackle this problem include improving flood predic-

tion, improving flood protection by renaturation, broadening rivers,

building dams and altering development plans to reduce potential

damage.

In the coming decades, Switzerland will have to make additional

investments in order to maintain today’s levels of resistance to the

threat of natural hazards. Estimates by the Swiss Federal Office for

the Environment indicate that by 2020 an additional 200 million

CHF per year will be necessary for protective measures against

mudslides, rockfalls and flooding.

Impacts on natural systems

Climate change is also expected to have various affects on

Switzerland’s biodiversity. The species composition of the country’s

ecosystems will change in the long run because different species

react differently to climate change. Flora and fauna will continue to

approximate those at lower elevations and in more southern areas.

Heat-sensitive species will move to cooler areas at higher elevations.

Less mobile species will be radically reduced in their numbers, or

disappear altogether. The productivity of forests and agriculture,

as well as the availability of clean water, may be affected by the

combination of high temperatures and low precipitation. At higher

elevations, the productivity of forests and permanent grassland will

be somewhat enhanced by warming, while at lower elevations it will

be constrained by summer drought. In the future, water resources

will also be of increasing importance to ecosystems – in particular

to those situated in valleys or hilly country.

To help species adapt to the changing climate, it will be neces-

sary to provide corridors between habitats and nature reserves. This

will enable migration as well as reduce the effects of anthropogenic

stresses – such as pollution – on both species and ecosystems.

The biggest health impacts of global warming in Switzerland

will be due to the expected increase in heat waves, in combination

with elevated tropospheric ozone concentrations. However, it is

entirely possible to avoid increased, heat-related mortality provided

adequate measures are taken. In addition, heat waves can impair the

efficiency of the national workforce, with resulting effects on the

economy. With higher temperatures, the danger of food poisoning

due to spoilt food and water will also increase.

A higher frequency of natural disasters – including floods,

mudslides and storms – will lead to more casualties and resulting

psychological stress.