Climate Sense

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Coping with climate variability

and change in Kenya

Kenya Meteorological Department

limate change can be described as a permanent shift

in the normal patterns of climate. Such a shift could

spread over a period of decades, or even longer. There is

discernible evidence – derived from numerous climate detection

processes –that climate is changing across the entire globe.

For a local farmer or herdsman, however, abstract scientific

notions of climate change make little sense. A definition relat-

ing to livelihood – detailing associated impacts that people can

relate to – is essential if we are ever to deal with the problems

climate change brings.

As such, climate change can be defined as lack of rain or changes to rain-

fall patterns. Practical conclusions can be drawn from such a description

since it will affect agricultural factors such as: planting times; wither-

ing of crops; drying of streams and rivers; dying of livestock; and hotter

nights. The significance of climate should not be underestimated. It

provides for all the basic needs of living organisms includ-

ing food, water and air. Furthermore, it renders the earth

beautiful by providing flowers, plants, deserts, oceans, rivers

and animals. Over many millennia, human beings and the

earth’s ecosystems have adapted to climate conditions. As

such, climate change will necessitate alterations in ecosys-

tems, as well as in human lifestyles through appropriate

adaptation strategies.

Observed climate change signals and impacts in Kenya

Temperature has generally risen all over Kenya. Analysis

of trends in temperature indicates that both minimum and

maximum temperatures have increased across the country.

In the inland areas the minimum temperatures show a

steeper increase than maximum temperatures. These trend

patterns reverse for stations near large water bodies, such

as the Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria. In both cases, the

general observation is a decrease in the temperature range.

The observed rise in temperature has provided favourable

conditions formosquitoes, enabling them to survive in envi-

ronments where they could not before. This has resulted in

the spread of malaria to initially malaria-free zones, such as

the highlands.

Rainfall has also been affected by climate change.

Large variations in rainfall are characteristic of Kenya

and relate to the variation in topography. Even so, the

rainfall patterns over the country have shown distinct

changes in the recent past. The changes have been

depicted in patterns of onset, distribution and amounts

of rainfall received in a season. Observations are also

made for more frequent and intense extreme rainfall

events such as floods and droughts. Recent extreme

events include the El Niño-related floods of 1997/98, as

well as floods in 2003 and 2006. Meanwhile, droughts

were observed in 1999-2001, 2005 and 2008/09.

Erratic rainfall has had impacts on many socioeconomic

sectors such as health, agriculture, energy, water resources

and disaster management. Some of the impacts include:

• Food insecurity due to poor harvests and death of livestock

• Resurgence of diseases such as Rift Valley Fever due to

heavy rainfall in the semi-arid parts of the country (as

witnessed in 1997/98 and 2006)

• Rivers drying up or becoming seasonal

• Displacement of communities

• Enhanced conflicts over limited resources such as pasture

and water.

daptation

and

itigation

trategies

Dead livestock due to scarcity of pasture and water following prolonged drought, Masailand

Image: Daily Nation Newspaper, 2000

Wilted maize crop during a drought

Image: Daily Nation Newspaper, 1999