Climate Sense

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Climate in the Pacific:

building capacity for climate services

Janita Pahalad and William Wright, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia

acific Island Countries (PICs) are largely dependent

on the natural environment and natural resources for

their socioeconomic sustenance. Agriculture, fisheries,

tourism, mining – and forestry in some of the larger more

elevated islands – are the main economic sectors for most

PICs, and subsistence lifestyles dominate the activities of

many rural communities. Both subsistence economies and

commercial activities are dependent on the natural resources

of the land and the sea. The transport sector is important and

is affected directly by severe weather events and persistent

climatic abnormalities. Reliable sea and air transport is essen-

tial to the well-being and development of the region, due to the

vast distances between island producers and both their inter-

nal and export markets, and to bring tourists to the islands.

The poor and highly permeable soils of many islands and all island

landscape processes are sensitive to weather and climate fluctuations.

Effectively used, weather and climate information provided by National

Meteorological and Hydrological Services can contribute significantly

to the success of almost all PIC national activities, especially economic

activities aimed at reducing poverty. Timely and accurate seasonal

climate prediction services, in particular, can contribute substantially

to social well-being and economic development.

The climate of the Pacific is strongly influenced by the El Niño-

Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which leads to significant

interannual variability in the frequency of many extreme weather

types in the region, such as tropical cyclones, floods and droughts.

ENSO can also cause significant fluctuations in sea level affecting

island coastal zones and especially the very many coral atolls, which

have little or no elevation. Today, climate models can simulate some

key aspects of interannual and interdecadal variability in climate

variables when forced by historical SSTs (sea surface temperatures).

Management of the risks associated with seasonal and interannual

fluctuations, and the likely even greater impacts of climate change,

would benefit from the development of a within-country capacity to

generate seasonal predictions, and its application to the many chal-

lenges in adapting to climate change.

Pacific Island communities are already being challenged by

economic and demographic changes taking place throughout the

world. Climate change too is already being observed throughout

the region and its effects, including sea-level rise, will very likely

influence the frequency and intensity of extremes in the region.

The superimposition of these multiple external influences will

have profound consequences on the region unless they are dealt

with systematically and comprehensively through in-country

actions reinforced by well-targeted donor support programmes.

Pacific Island Climate Prediction Project

Acknowledging that seasonal to interannual climate

variability has important practical, planning and policy

implications for PICs, in 2003 the Government of Australia

commenced the Pacific Island Climate Prediction Project

(PI-CPP). The aim of the project, managed and imple-

mented by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, has

been to expand and enhance the prudent use of informa-

tion derived from SCOPIC,

a climate prediction software

package introduced by the project into the meteorologi-

cal services of ten PICs.

The incorporation of objectively

derived climate information – including predictions –

into decision-making processes within client/stakeholder

agencies of the participating PICs has been a major focus

of the project. The value of climate prediction informa-

tion has been demonstrated through a number of pilot

schemes that have involved in-country training of both

meteorological personnel and stakeholders receiving and

applying the information.

One such pilot scheme involved the application of

climate forecasts for improved management of drought

and crop production (sweet potato) in Papua New

Guinea (PNG). Throughout the Pacific and in Pacific

rim countries, including PNG and eastern Australia, the

teleconnections of climate anomalies associated with

El Niño and La Niña events are sufficiently strong and

reliable for decision making in activities and industries

sensitive to climate variability. Individuals, communities

and governments can all develop and apply appropri-

ate seasonal response strategies to mitigate the harmful

impacts, or enhance potential benefits arising from,

periods of climate extremes. The long-term goal of this

pilot project is to identify the underlying environmental,

economic and social impacts of drought (and floods) on

local agriculture and, with the aid of seasonal forecast-

ing, develop strategies that will reduce vulnerability to

expected harmful climatic periods, or enhance produc-

tivity when climatic outcomes are expected to beneficial.

Another pilot scheme explored the relationship

between ENSO and incidence of malaria in the

Solomon Islands. In the Solomon Islands malaria is

one of the leading causes of morbidity;

Plasmodium

falciparum

, the most severe and life-threatening form

of the disease, accounts for approximately 60-70

per cent of all confirmed cases. Since the late 1990s

reports of malaria have risen sharply in several prov-

mpacts

and

mplications

limate

hange

and

ariability