Climate Exchange

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] 102

Informing decision-making in health

using seasonal climate outlooks

Yahya Abawi, Jason A. Smith, Amanda Amjadali, David Jones,

Diann Woods and Michael J. Coughlan, Australian Bureau of Meteorology;

and Lloyd Tahani, Solomon Islands Meteorological Service

he Pacific region experiences substantial climate variabil-

ity as a result of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Specifically, the seasonal changes in rainfall and temper-

ature can cause droughts, flooding and temperature extremes.

Fortunately for the region, many of the associated impacts are

predictable using statistical and dynamical climate models,

allowing a degree of preparedness and proactive management of

the most severe impacts.

The Government of Australia (GoA) has contributed signifi-

cant resources to supporting Pacific islands’ management of and

responses to climate variability and change. GoA funds a range of

climate-related programmes and projects through the bilateral and

regional programmes of the Australian Agency for International

Development (AusAID). One such project is the Pacific Islands

Climate Prediction Project (PI-CPP), which has been implemented

by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The goal of PI-CPP was to

strengthen the capacity of Pacific Island countries (PICs) in seasonal

climate prediction and to provide climate-related information. A

key component of the project was to build indigenous capability in

preparing and issuing seasonal forecasts, noting the significant skill

potential value of forecasts.

From the outset, it was recognized that merely

supporting National Meteorological Services (NMSs)

to produce seasonal climate forecasts would not

guarantee their effective uptake by climate-sensitive

industries and resource managers. A key compo-

nent of PI-CPP, therefore, has been a pilot project

programme to use the seasonal forecasts to support

vulnerable sectors such as health, agriculture, water

and renewable energy. Integral to each pilot project

have been follow-up visits and workshops in the

participating PICs to outline the project results and

explore the potential for developing operational

information and warning systems. The implementa-

tion and sustained operation of such systems require

close collaboration and coordination between NMSs

as the primary providers of climate information and

the user/client groups that need to integrate the

information into their planning, management and

decision-making processes.

ENSO and malaria in the Solomon Islands

One such pilot project on the application of seasonal

forecasts has been the development of a prototype

malaria early warning system in the Solomon Islands.

In order to facilitate the project, the PI-CPP team coor-

dinated with both the Solomon Islands Meteorological

Service (SIMS) and the Solomon Islands Medical

Training and Research Institute (SIMTRI). A principal

objective of the project was to develop malaria outlooks

based on the historical relationship between malaria

incidence and the effects of the ENSO phenomenon

on rainfall and temperature. Determining the precise

nature of this correlation was itself a key component

of the project and the subject of lengthy investiga-

tion. Once the relationships were well understood, it

became possible to develop a prototype early warning

system in which SIMS could issue bulletins for periods

in which upcoming climate conditions were favour-

able for high malaria incidence, thus allowing medical

services and residents to take measures to minimize

infection. It is also expected that such forecasts would

provide sufficient lead time for healthcare services to

efficiently incorporate in their planning the need for

additional medical resources during these periods.

ealth

Map of the Solomon Islands showing major islands and towns

Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology