Climate Exchange

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The use of seasonal climate forecasts to

inform decision-making and management

in the renewable energy sector of Samoa

J.A. Smith, E. Thompson and A. Amjadali, Australian Bureau of Meteorology;

S. Seuseu, Samoa Meteorological Service and W. J. Young, Electric Power Corporation

he climate of the Pacific region is heavily influenced

by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena

resulting in significant seasonal variability in rainfall

and temperature, which often causes droughts, flooding and

temperature extremes. Fortunately for the region, many climatic

effects associated with ENSO are predictable using statistical

and dynamical climate models, allowing for a degree of prepar-

edness and proactive management of the most severe impacts.

The Government of Australia supports the Pacific Island countries’

(PICs) response to climate variability and change, including financ-

ing a range of climate-related programmes through the Australian

Agency for International Development’s (AusAID) bilateral and

regional programmes. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM)

implemented Pacific Islands Climate Prediction Project (PI-CPP),

which operated between 2004 and 2012, was one such project. A key

component of the PI-CPP was the pilot project programme, which

demonstrated the use of seasonal forecasts in vulnerable sectors.

Climate variability and energy security

One such pilot project focused on mitigating the risks posed by

ENSO-based climate variability to the energy sector in Samoa. Afulilo

Dam is a freshwater reservoir located south-east of the

Samoan capital, Apia, on the island of Upolu. Afulilo

Dam supplies the islands’ main hydropower station,

at Ta’elefaga on the coast of Fagaloa Bay. Together,

the dam and the Ta’elefaga Powerhouse constitute the

Afulilo hydropower scheme. When commissioned in

1993, the scheme accounted for 80 per cent of Samoa’s

electricity needs.

However, growing demand due to

provision of electricity to a wider population and the

uptake of improved electricity services has reduced the

total proportion of energy produced by hydropower in

Samoa to around 30-45 per cent, depending on local

conditions.

Hydropower production is susceptible to variability in

streamflow, so seasonal climate variability creates signifi-

cant operational challenges. Under present conditions, the

dam capacity at Afulilo has a usable storage that could

supply hydropower for only a few months in the absence

of recharge, putting power production at significant risk

from climate variability. This issue is exacerbated by the

fact that Afulilo Dam provides an important nursery

ground for tilapia fish which are a key aquacultural

asset

nergy

A penstock carries water from Afulilo Dam to the Ta’elefaga Powerhouse at Fagaloa Bay

Image: Australian BoM