Climate Exchange

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nergy

Application

These results clearly highlight the risks to meeting current demand for

hydropower generation, particularly in drier El Niño years. With elec-

tricity demand continuing to increase at around 4 per cent a year, and

with substantial variation between El Niño and La Niña years, there is a

strong case for using seasonal climate forecasts to inform seasonal water

management decisions. Implementing this strategy should improve the

reliability of energy supply while reducing the risk of acute power short-

ages, protecting the habitat of the tilapia fish nursery and easing the

immediate need for expensive infrastructure upgrades. In the longer

term however, the results of these scenarios reinforce the need for

further infrastructure and energy capacity upgrades.

Another important consideration is that energy production effi-

ciency is highly sensitive to changes in water flow through the

power-generating turbine, particularly at the likely low rates of

flow in drought periods.

This is especially pertinent considering

the current strategy of generating power at conservative levels to

mitigate drought risk; a strategy that is likely to be significantly less

efficient than setting targets based on seasonal climate forecasts.

Capacity

During a visit to Afulilo Dam and the EPC offices in November

2007, Dr Abawi made a number of recommendations regarding

storage of data records and possible improvements that could be

made to instrumentation, measurement techniques and record

keeping practices, a number of which were subsequently imple-

mented.

A new water height gauge has been installed at the

dam wall, which measures the water level more

accurately, overcoming errors associated with the

poor positioning of the original gauge. In addition,

the local rainfall gauge has been shifted from an area

obstructed by large trees to an area without foliage

cover. Given the large rainfall gradient across the

small Afulilo catchment, small measurement errors

could have significant impacts on the measured water

balance of the dam; these improvements represent a

substantial increase in measurement and data collec-

tion capacity within EPC.

In July 2012, a meeting was held between represent-

atives of the Climate and Ocean Support Programme

in the Pacific (COSPPac)

, SMD and EPC to discuss

the current status and future directions of the project

in Samoa. Wairarapa Young, EPC’s Renewable Energy

Officer, acknowledged the effect of the project so far,

noting that the pilot project had helped in the posi-

tive development of EPC’s data collection strategy. He

also indicated that due to the demonstrated benefits

of the project and the necessity for valid data, EPC

was installing new rain gauges and repairing exist-

ing ones.

SMD also reported on its ability to supply EPC

with customized outlooks for energy management

purposes; a step being taken for a number of industries.

Mr Young indicated that EPC had begun supplying

Capacity improvement options at Afulilo Dam

Source: Australian BoM