Climate Exchange

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thermal station at Fiaga, in central Upolu, to add capacity

to the power grid. However, this strategy increases Samoa’s

exposure to global energy markets, where the cost of diesel

is already high and expected to rise. It also makes Samoa

more vulnerable to price shocks and market fluctuations

which pose significant economic risks to countries that are

reliant on imported energy sources and raises additional

associated environmental concerns from increased emis-

sions of CO

and other pollutants.

A third option is to improve the operational efficiency

of the Afulilo hydropower scheme by incorporating

information on likely variations from normal rain-

fall. This would allow for short-term climate forecasts

provided by the Samoa Meteorological Division (SMD)

to be an integral component of the scheme’s manage-

ment strategy. Under this strategy, seasonal climate

forecasts would be used to predict the risk of energy

shortfalls with sufficient lead time to allow the appli-

cation of more flexible operating procedures, thus

ensuring that the water supply is managed in the most

practical and efficient manner for prevailing and likely

climate conditions. These forecasts could also be used

to inform forward planning with regard to sourcing

supplementary energy supplies in high risk years. Given

the strong relationship between climate predictors and

rainfall in Samoa, the use of climate forecasts for the

management of hydropower production is seen as the

most feasible and cost effective option, at least in the

short term. In the longer term, improved management

of hydropower production could also work hand in

hand with other infrastructure upgrades while protect-

ing the health of Afulilo Dam as a tilapia nursery.

for Samoa, reducing pressure on coastal fish stocks.

To ensure the

health of tilapia in the dam while maximizing energy production effi-

ciency, the dead storage level is set at around 30 per cent of capacity,

greatly limiting the usable water supply for hydropower purposes.

To hedge against climate risk, the Electric Power Corporation

(EPC) sets conservative production goals. However, in most years,

when drought does not occur, this leads to suboptimal energy produc-

tion, reducing the overall efficiency of the hydropower operation.

Considering the options

The Government of Samoa aims to increase the proportion of energy

produced by renewable sources by 20 per cent before 2030. EPC is

prioritizing the research and use of locally-appropriate renewable

energy sources. Hydropower has been recognized as one of the most

reliable and cost effective forms of renewable energy, and EPC’s effort

in using this includes maximizing the output of existing facilities as

well as assessing the feasibility of additional hydropower schemes.

There are various options for mitigating the effects of climate

variability on the energy sector of Samoa. One option involves

expanding the dam and increasing the production capacity at

Ta’elefaga Powerhouse by raising the dam wall and adding a third

turbine to the powerhouse. However, due to local topography, the

additional inflow would need to be sourced from lower elevations

than the dam itself, requiring the water to be pumped to the dam

and partially offsetting the increased power production that would

be achieved.

An approximate 30 per cent dead storage level is also

required to maintain the long-term health of the Afulilo Dam ecosys-

tem, which is important to its use as a tilapia nursery ground. Thus,

lowering the dead storage level to increase the overall volume of

water available for hydropower production is not a viable option.

A second option is to increase thermal power production and the

proportion of energy sourced from diesel fuel. EPC is building a new

A map of Samoa, showing the main islands of Savai’i and Upolu

Source: Australian BoM