Climate Exchange

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cosystems

there was a trend towards increases in monthly total

precipitation for the autumn months, which may have an

impact on forest growth.

Consultations with forest specialists identified the need

for specific assessment of forest ecosystem vulnerability to

hydrometeorological conditions to support the improve-

ment of forest management planning. ArmStateHydromet

carried out the assessment using the multivariable

analogue method, which takes into account maximum

and minimum temperature, daily maximum precipitation

and wind velocity. The results showed that, in general,

the Syunik region is moderately vulnerable, with relatively

high vulnerability in selected forest areas such as Meghri

and Kapan. Daily maximum precipitation was the most

significant among the climate parameters.

Climate change future scenarios

To improve forest and protected area management plan-

ning under changing conditions, area-specific climate

change scenarios were developed under the project for the

management is implemented by three Forest Enterprises: Sisian, Syunik

and Kapan. Specially protected forest areas, which cover about 28% of

Armenia’s forests, are managed by respective State Non-Commercial

Organizations under the Ministry of Nature Protection. Several

protected areas, including the Arevik National Park and the Shikahogh

State Reserve are located in the Syunik region, which is identified both

nationally and internationally for its conservation priority.

Climate variability and climate change

Climate patterns across the Syunik region, historical trends and

observed changes were estimated at local scale under the project to

support the assessment of climate change impacts on forest ecosystems.

This involved the analysis of average, maximum and minimum air

temperatures, total precipitation, wind velocity and air humidity time

series as well as intra-annual variability, with a focus on the growing

period. The results showed a persistent increase in temperature of 0.7°-

0.9°C between 1935 and 2010, becoming more pronounced in the last

two decades. The analysis also revealed some intra-annual features: the

largest increase inmonthly mean temperature was inMarch, whichmay

result in more frequent early onset of vegetation growth. Furthermore,

Source: Armenian State Hydrometeorological and Monitoring Service

Average air temperature for warm half-years over the Syunik region for (A) baseline period (1961-1990); and future

(A)

(C)

(B)

(D)