Climate Exchange

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cosystems

Syunik region to help identify how communities of forest species will

be affected by climate change, e.g. what physical and biological changes

could result from changes in temperature, precipitation and aggravation

of situations with extreme climate events. The project is advocating the

use of scenario planning to become a routine part of forest and national

park management planning processes.

The outputs of the PRECIS regional climate model were used to

estimate future changes in temperature and precipitation for different

seasons, and warm periods at different altitudes, for the years 2030,

2070 and 2100

. The results indicate a gradual increase in air tempera-

ture, which is more strongly pronounced in the main forest areas to the

south of the Syunik region. This will result in the vertical shift of climate

zones and subsequent shifting of the suitable ranges of forest species.

Similar projections were prepared for all the seasons, and were provided

to stakeholders to be used in long-term forest management planning.

Threats to biodiversity

The rise in temperature and decrease in precipitation can significantly

affect the ability of forests to regenerate through tree seeds. Although

the negative humidity balance creates unfavourable conditions for seed

restoration in the lower-bound forest area, in the upper-bound forest

area the changing climate conditions contribute to the improvement of

the temperature regime, enabling regeneration through the seed base.

Consequently, this facilitates a gradual elevation of the upper-bound

forest area. The advancement of the forest belt, however, is limited by

for example grazing activities. In addition to the expected gradual forest

recession at the lower forest border, the area will be penetrated by semi-

desert and arid open forest plant species. Because forests at altitudes of

1,700m and above generally have higher adaptive capacity, significant

changes in forest ecosystems at this altitude will be seenmostly in previ-

ously degraded areas. In lower-bound forests the changes in the climatic

conditions can lead to significant degradation of the ecosystem

. In the

Syunik region, the vulnerability of endemic species, including those

listed in the Red Data Book of the Republic of Armenia, is more detect-

able in the lower-bound forest areas, where they are prevalent.

Climate change and variability have led to water stress in mountain-

ous forest ecosystems, which has resulted in increased susceptibility

of forests to pests and exaggeration of occurrence of pest outbreaks

Climate change has had negative impacts on the sanitary conditions of

the forests in the Syunik region over the last decade. Over this period,

pest infestations have affected approximately 20,000 hectares of forests

in the region, and it is expected that in the south-eastern forests, pest-

holes of leaf-eating insects will grow significantly. Forest pests have

caused the most damage in the Meghri region, where also significant

reductions in tree growth rates and mortality have been observed.

Moreover, the occurrence of forest fires has increased significantly in

the recent years in the region and especially in Meghri

. Pests and fires

continue to contribute to the process of forest decline.

The Syunik region in general is characterized by a high frequency of

extreme climatic events, mainly heavy rainfalls, which lead to landslides

andmudflows. As a result, this region is ranked first in Armenia for land-

slide areas and high risk of mudflows. Further, the incidence of extreme

events has increased over the last 20 years. These climatic events can

impact natural ecosystems significantly by leading to undesired changes

and destruction of many plant and animal species’ habitats.

Climate extremes and early warning systems

Climate extremes have long been a matter of concern for forest manage-

ment policymakers. An efficient warning system is needed to provide

alerts and advice on extreme weather and climate events.

The climate watch system (CWS) is an example of such

a warning system, providing a proactive mechanism for

interacting with users and alerting them of major climate

anomalies and extremes. The main components of CWS

include observation and data, comprehensive monitoring

of climate systems and long-term forecasting products. In

order to develop such a system, all these components have

to be in place.

As a part of the project activities, the status of the obser-

vation network and the availability of historical datasets of

variables in the Syunik region were assessed. The project

focused on the availability of reliable, quality-controlled,

homogenized long time series of climate data

. Furthermore,

the gaps and shortcomings of the existing hydrometeoro-

logical observation systemwere identified and data-sharing

mechanisms to support sustainable forest management

were discussed with interested partners in the Syunik

region. The consultations furthermore helped to identify

the needs in terms of climate products and information for

effective forest management and long-termplanning. Based

on the results, a proposal is being developed for improving

the observation and forecasting system.

More specific information on the current level of use

of climate products in forest and protected area manage-

ment practices, the challenges met during the application

of climate information and needs of forest and protected

area managers for specialized products was collected in a

survey study under the project. One major user require-

ment was an urgent need for improved seasonal prediction

and forest fire alerts. The fire risk index (FRI) by Nesterov

– a complex index based on air temperature, dew point

and number of days with precipitation more than 3mm/

day – is being assessed for this purpose

. The fire risk index

can be used for monitoring current fire risk conditions as

well as forecasting fire risk on a seasonal scale. Based on the

monitoring of current climate conditions and the seasonal

outlook, three-day and monthly forest fire alerts can be

issued and provided to users via e-mail and facsimile.

To further facilitate the implementation of an early

warning system in the Syunik region, climate extremes

have also been studied under the project. Several climate

indices have been estimated for the towns of Kapan, Goris

and Meghri and their trends were analysed.The results

revealed a statistically significant increase in the number of

summer days with a daily maximum temperature higher

than 25° C, as well as increased duration of dry spells and

length of the growing season in all three locations

Increasing public awareness on climate change risks

Under the project, a wide range of stakeholders at various

levels (national to local) have been engaged in public

awareness campaigns aiming to increase awareness of

climate change risks in natural ecosystems and to reduce

further human induced impacts on mountain forests.

Climate products and information, including informa-

tional posters, brochures and multimedia products, have

been presented at seminars and lectures held in educational

institutions in Yerevan and Syunik for students and teachers.