Climate Exchange

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Multinational efforts to produce regional

climate prediction for informed decision-making

Jin Ho Yoo and Nina Horstmann, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center, Korea

hanges in the Earth’s climate and its variability, in

combination with the ongoing evolution of society (for

example increasing populations in coastal regions),

have increased human vulnerability to environmental condi-

tions. As evidence of climate change mounts and the issue

gains prominence in public discourse, largely prompted by the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment

Report, the demand for skilful and accessible climate informa-

tion for use across different sectors grows. Such sectors include

public health, environmental protection, natural resource

management, coastal zone management, urban and regional

planning, insurance, water management, the energy industry

and beyond.

Among the wide range of climate information products, forecasts

for the upcoming season have become part of the operational

product portfolios of many national hydrometeorological services

(NHMSs), as they are now considered to have great potential to

create social benefits, based on scientific evaluations and several

experimental applications conducted around the world. Seasonal

climate prediction information and its use in society are a good test-

bed for evaluating our ability to harness the full spectrum of climate

information and respond to climate-related global change.

Sharing seasonal climate forecasts

It is clear that the integrated effort of the global community will

be required to solve the problems related to climate variability and

change, as these climate anomalies are global phenomena and their

societal impacts will transcend national borders due to the globalized

economy. As the regional organization that accounts for the largest

share of the Earth’s land mass and population, the Asia-Pacific

Economic Cooperation (APEC) and its member economies recog-

nized the need for to establish a global network to minimize natural

disasters and their negative economic impacts through international

collaboration on science, technology and innovation and setting up

a proper sharing mechanism for available climate information. In

1999, the APEC Climate Network (APCN) was initiated with the

aim of creating a channel for the exchange of seasonal climate infor-

mation and prediction technology in order to reduce the impacts of

climate disasters and to enhance the socioeconomic wellbeing of the

region through the utilization of climate information. The success-

ful implementation of APCN led to the establishment of the APEC

Climate Center (APCC) in 2005, with the endorsement of all 21

member economies. As a regional hub for sharing climate informa-

tion, APCC collects seasonal climate forecasts from 17 operational

and research groups in the Asia Pacific region and combines them to

produce the optimized Multi Model Ensemble (MME)

seasonal climate forecast, which is disseminated to the

APEC member economies and the global community.

Recently, the seasonal forecast from the UK Met Office

was added to the MME pool. APCC currently oper-

ates the MME with the world’s most extensive dataset

of seasonal prediction forecasts. In addition to this,

APCC also undertakes various research programmes

and activities that aim to improve the quality of the

climate information, such as MME methods, strength-

ening technical cooperation, and capacity building and

training on climate prediction and its use.

Currently, APCC provides a three-month MME fore-

cast of global temperature and precipitation on the

25th of each month and a six-month MME forecast at

the start of each season in the form of graphical and

digital data. Furthermore, several monitoring products

such as global hydrological extremes and sea surface

temperature conditions are provided on the APCC

website.

The format and variables of the MME forecasts

are in accordance with the meteorological community

standard for seasonal forecast products, as the NHMSs

represent the primary user group of APCC products.

User interactions and lessons learned

However, scientific literature has commonly observed that

real applications of climate forecasts in decision-making

have been quite limited because of the large gap between

forecast providers and users.

The formats, timing and

accuracy of climate forecasts are often not suitable for the

conditions under which potential users make decisions.

Moreover, user groups have difficulties in accessing appro-

priate climate information. It has also been emphasized

that an interdisciplinary approach is essential to resolve

this problem. Therefore, the successful application of

climate forecast information will require:

• Improvements in climate information products to suit

user needs

• Enhanced accessibility and visibility of climate information

• Greater collaboration and communication between

users and providers.

In addition to scientific research to improve the quality

of climate forecasts, APCC is striving to enhance the

socioeconomic value of the information it currently

provides in line with the above-mentioned concerns.

ommunities