Climate Exchange

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ommunities

tions and non-availability of timely information in a user-friendly

format. Fortunately, Eastern Africa is a region where climate is

relatively more predictable due to the strong correlation with

El Niño/La Niña episodes. In a study conducted to evaluate the

potential benefits of seasonal climate forecasts, we asked farmers

to evaluate the skill in forecasts and assess their usefulness in

planning and managing their farms. We used hindcasts provided

by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

for 43 short rain seasons (October-December) starting from

1961, for Katumani in the Machakos district.

Farmers rated the forecasts, comparing the predicted with the

observed seasonal conditions by grouping the seasons into two catego-

ries – below normal and above normal for maize growing. According

to the farmers’ assessment, 35 of the 43 predictions were extremely

good and use of these forecasts for farm management could result

in substantial productivity gains during wet years and in minimiz-

ing losses during dry years. Of the eight misses, farmers considered

the four seasons in which below-normal rainfall was predicted but

above-normal rainfall was received to be less of a problem, since they

represent a lost opportunity but involve no loss on investment. The

real problem is with the four seasons that were predicted to be above

normal but turned out to be below normal. These are the seasons in

which investments guided by forecasts could potentially lead to a loss.

However, the observed prediction skills are above the farmer accept-

able level of 80 per cent, which is four out of five seasons.

Evidence from our studies clearly establishes that

significant benefits can be derived from the use of

climate information if it is interpreted and presented in

a way that can easily be understood by the end users.

Farmers were able to appreciate the value of forecast

information when this was interpreted in terms of its

agricultural significance and presented in the form of

an advisory that summarizes key potentials and risks

associated with the type of season predicted. When the

usefulness of the advisory service was evaluated after

three seasons, most farmers considered the advisories

to be extremely useful in planning farm operations,

an observation well supported by the willingness of

87 per cent of the farmers interviewed to pay for the

service if required.

Given the general complexity and extreme varia-

bility associated with climate, it is not only difficult

to perceive the trends but also difficult to measure,

analyse and explain them accurately. However,

the trends derived from longer-term observations

and predictions at seasonal scale, which are fairly

reliable, have the potential to make significant

contributions to addressing the misperceptions

and gaps in understanding that have come to light

through these studies.

A woman farmer in Ethiopia explaining rainfall records that she has been recording on her farm

Image: ICRISAT