Climate Exchange

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Capacity Development
‘long-lead’ early warning (eg for drought or successive drought) and
adaptation advice.
In addition, CSRP has developed methodology to investigate the
attribution of extreme climate events over Africa. Work has focused
on the Greater Horn of Africa severe drought of 2010/11 in which both
the ‘short’ (October-December) and ‘long’ (March-May) rainy seasons
failed. First results indicate that man-made climate change has had little
impact on rainfall in the short rains season, but may have increased the
risk of drier than average conditions in the long rains season. Science-
based information on the role of man-made climate change in driving
extreme events over Africa is essential to inform adaptation decisions
and will help avoid potentially expensive inappropriate adaptation.
Increasing geographical detail in climate predictions
In the CSRP consultation the need for higher spatial detail in forecasts
was given high priority. To provide higher spatial detail, predictions
from global climate models need to be post-processed using a technique
known as ‘downscaling’. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) or high-
resolution limited area climate models, are widely used for downscaling
predictions from global models. They use information from the global
model to provide the large-scale context and then add high-resolution
details. By limiting their focus to specific regions, RCMs are able to
provide much finer geographical detail without prohibitive increases in
computing costs. CSRP is developing the science of RCM downscaling,
with a focus on downscaling seasonal forecasts.
Significant improvements to the simulation of African rainfall achieved
in the global version of HadGEM3 are also found in the regional model.
In addition, the higher resolution of the regional model has brought addi-
tional performance benefits. The new RCM has been installed at ICPAC
and tested for downscaling seasonal forecasts for the Greater Horn of
Africa. To support this activity, a research workshop has been held with
climate scientists in the region to develop strategies for interpreting and
using downscaled information for preparation of consensus seasonal fore-
casts. The improved performance of the RCM for Africa will also enhance
the quality of our contribution to the CORDEX dataset and our service to
developing countries through the PRECIS system.
Strengthening climate science in Africa
A key part of the collaboration with the African climate scientists is the
CSRP climate fellowship scheme. Eleven fellows have been appointed and
each is working on a CSRP research topic within one of the
three science output areas. This approach helps advance the
project’s objectives, while also strengthening the professional
development of the fellows. Fellows have been appointed
from across Africa: four in West Africa; four in East Africa,
one in central Africa and two in southern Africa – providing
a wide range of regional perspectives. Four CSRP fellows
presented results of their work at the 4th International
AMMA conference in Toulouse, France, 2-6 July 2012.
Developing research products that target demand and are
accessible to users
A key objective of CSRP is to bring results of the
programme’s research into practical use in Africa. This
is being achieved in three main ways:
• Climate science workshops held in collaboration
with African centres
• Participation in Africa’s Regional Climate Outlook Forums
• Participation in policy forums for climate and development.
Climate science workshops
The theme of the first CSRP climate science workshop
was ‘appreciation and use of dynamical seasonal fore-
casts for the Greater Horn of Africa’. This two-week
workshop was delivered in collaboration with ICPAC
Nairobi and included development of the first ever
consensus prediction for the July to September season
– an important rainy season in the north of the Greater
Horn – and a forum with users of climate products.
Key outcomes from the workshop include the success-
ful trial of spreadsheet-based interactive training tools
for familiarizing with and verifying dynamical seasonal
forecasts, as well as strategies for improved use of dynami-
cal forecasts in the preparation of regional and national
seasonal outlooks. The second climate science workshop
was on RCM downscaling of seasonal forecasts for the
Greater Horn of Africa (see previous section).
More information about CSRP is available at
Participants at the 32nd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum 29-31 August 2012, Zanzibar Beach Resort Hotel, Zanzibar, Tanzania
Image: UK Met Office