Climate Exchange

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apacity

evelopment

• Varying rainfall patterns across the country (31 per

cent reduction to 16 per cent increase)

• Shorter rainy seasons and prolonged periods of

drought, especially in the central regions of the

Zambezi River Valley

• Temperature increases on average of one to two

degrees Celsius by 2050

• Rising sea levels.

With growing uncertainties, hydromet information

becomes increasingly important for understanding,

preparing and managing the implications of climate

change.

Improving hydromet services

The type, source and accessibility of hydromet infor-

mation vary between the DNA, ARAs and INAM. For

hydromet service agencies, strengthening their rela-

tions with and understanding of end-user needs tends

to improve the quality of information in countries with

advanced levels of services. Although this is not the sole

solution to improving services, the proposed support

for Mozambique will give due attention to the user-

relations of DNA, the ARAs and INAM.

For general use, the format of hydromet informa-

tion products are ususally ‘bulletins’ where the scale

of monitoring or forecasting is either basin (such as

for the ARAs and DNA) or provincial (such as for

INAM). In certain cases, the information may be

tailored to the user’s needs. This is the case for the

aviation sector (eg monitoring and forecasting at

airports) or providing data in excel on rainfall and

run-off for dam operators.

ring floods that are often associated with the paths of tropical

cyclones. Drought conditions are also commonplace – particularly

in the southern region where the greater Maputo metropolitan area

is located and in the central provinces along the Zambezi River

where roughly 20 per cent of Mozambicans live and over half the

country’s mean annual run-off is.

Since the catastrophic floods of 2000 and 2001, the social and

economic impacts of extreme events have been researched in detail.

For example, cyclone Eline in 2000 was estimated to have caused

losses, damages and reconstruction costs equivalent to 20 per cent

of country’s gross domestic product in addition to loss of human

lives and livelihoods.

In 2010, the World Bank estimated that merely four per cent of the

potential 2.7 million hectares in Mozambique were developed with

equipped irrigation. Because almost 80 per cent of Mozambicans

depend on small-scale farming for food security and income, and the

area they farm represents almost 97 per cent of total cultivated land,

harnessing water and planning for weather events is essential for

crop production – especially considering that 60-80 per cent of rain

falls between December and March during the rainy season. Equal

to the potential for agriculture, Mozambique’s rivers could provide

some 13,000 megawatts in hydropower capacity. Yet infrastructure

development is low and the vast majority of the country lacks access

to electricity. In the Southern African Development Community,

Mozambique has some of the lowest level of development in both

irrigation and hydropower. It is also uniquely positioned regionally

as the downstream riparian of nine of its 13 large rivers. The fact that

more than 50 per cent of the total mean annual run-off is generated

outside Mozambique’s boundaries further elevates the importance of

having a sound understanding of water flows and weather patterns.

Furthermore, the climate change scenarios of the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predict significant

implications for Mozambique. Global circulation models indicate:

80 per cent of the population depend on small-scale farming

Local water supply