Climate Exchange

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Reference scenarios for France

Drias is the result of an association between climatologists and

climate scientists, joining forces to improve the service to the

country. Established in line with a reference scenarios initiative

that aims to deliver a set of common inputs for public and private

adaptation policies, it paves the way for further services. The climate

information comes from the regionalized simulations elaborated

over France, covering the recent past (from 1950) and the future

(until 2100). Data are corrected according to Météo-France’s anal-

ysis of the past climate. The reference scenarios were published

following a request from the ministry to Jean Jouzel, vice-president

of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), after

this point had been raised during the elaboration of the National

Plan for Adaptation. They are disseminated on the French National

Observatory of Climate Effects website, an entity of the Energy and

Climate Directorate of the Ministry for Sustainable Development.

Two assessment reports have been published on reference

climate indices for the future, as well as a comprehensive synthesis

on the state of knowledge regarding sea level change for France.

The climate indices reports make full use of the concerted projec-

tions elaborated by the French community, corrected with the

analysis provided by Météo-France. The first report shows two

GES scenarios and two models (resolutions less than 60 km) for

three 20-year periods covering the twenty-first century. The second

report presents two 30-year periods, three other regional models

(resolutions between 12 and 20 km) and three scenarios. Indices

are given with confidence intervals, corresponding to averages and

extremes values for temperature and precipitation, and extreme

winds. They are computed for metropolitan France and five sub-

regions. For the overseas territories and other variables such as

river flows, a synthesis is established relying on IPCC reports and

other relevant research. The climate projections used for the most

recent report (February 2012) are also accessible through the Drias

portal, where users can retrieve data and indices.

The portal and the scientific assessment are made as

fully compatible as possible, illustrating the wish of the

scientific community to deliver a coherent service to

users. Research activity is also defined by user require-

ments, and interaction with users will now orientate

part of the future evolution of the service.

The challenge ahead

Users’ feedback has been enthusiastic on these initia-

tives. The portal and the facilities offered are highly

appreciated. For the first time, there is access to prod-

ucts that until recently were only for scientists with the

tools and skills to manipulate them. From a technical

point of view, the construction of the portal has been a

challenge for teams who were used to elaborating and

delivering climatological standard products, but had

very little competency with climate models outputs.

The synergy with the scientists has proven very fruit-

ful, increasing the level of the operational team while

feeding the climate modellers with requirements and

advisories regarding data, output specifications or the

voluntary effort necessary for further harmonization of

the various climate model outputs and metadata.

An imperceptible change has also occurred because of

the opening of Drias. From now on, science is heavily

connected not only with the society, but also with end

users. This is the fundamental spirit of ‘services’, a word

that must be considered and weights a lot in ‘climate

services’. Climate modelling and climate science are no

longer purely science driven: users and societal needs

require a stepwise delivery of information, accompanied

by explanation, best practice examples and guidance on

how to face the decision making process. Drias acts as

a channel for this. For this reason too, the portal was

Home page for the Discovery area of the Drias portal – visitors are offered two different ways to discover the scenarios based on their level of competency