Climate Exchange

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Developing the capacity of Central Asian

national planning agencies to model climate

impact scenarios and develop adaptation strategies

Jaakko Nuottokari, Head of International Consulting, Consulting Services;

Dr Ari Venäläinen Senior Research Scientist, Climate Change;

and Natalia Pimenoff, Research Scientist, Climate Change, Finnish Meteorological Institute

ater resources management in the Central Asia

region faces big challenges. The hydrological

regimes of the two major rivers in the region, the

Syr Darya and the Amu Darya, are complex and vulnerable

to climate change. Currently, melt-water from the moun-

tain glaciers supplements the water supply in the rivers.

Unfortunately this extra reserve is predicted to vanish in a

few decades as the small glaciers disappear totally. Water

diversions to agricultural, industrial and domestic users

have reduced flows in downstream regions, resulting in severe

ecological damage. The administrative-institutional system is

fragmented with six independent countries sharing control,

often with contradicting objectives.

A recent project developed and introduced measures to adapt

to changing hydrological regimes. These measures build climate

resilience in target watersheds against anticipated disaster

scenarios, reducing potentially adverse climate impact on

energy supply, food production and environmental sustain-

ability. The impact of the project is on more efficient national

strategies for climate change adaptation, with the outcome of

an improved national capacity to model climate scenarios and

develop adaptation strategies.

Climate information as basis for decision-making

The project developed national capacity in each of the participating

countries to use models to prepare climate change impact scenar-

ios and develop adaptation strategies. This resulted in improved

national strategies for climate change adaptation. It was imple-

mented in close collaboration with the main regional and national

organizations responsible for land and water management.

The project involved the downscaling of Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report

climate models for the Central Asia region, and the use of this data

for hydrological modelling to determine effects to river flows and

resulting water resources available for users. The climate informa-

tion was produced by the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI)

and hydrological modelling was done by FutureWater from the

Netherlands. The outcomes were shared in stakeholder workshops

involving key decision-makers from the national governments of

Central Asian countries.

ater

Image: Dr Ari Venäläinen, FMI

The Charvak reservoir and power plant in Uzbekistan

The Amu Darya and Syr Darya river basins: hydrological

models for these river basins are used to make simulations

including climate change scenarios

Image: Dr Ari Venäläinen, FMI