Climate Exchange

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Results

Climate data to be applied in hydrological modelling

included daily mean temperatures and daily precipitation

data in a grid covering the Central Asian countries. On

one hand the hydrological modelling required present

day climate data – for calibration of the model – and

on the other hand it needed future climate projections.

The gridded data representing present-day daily mean,

maximum and minimum temperatures were produced by

surface observations of temperature for the years 2001-

2010, and kriging interpolation. The present-day daily

precipitation data were established using satellite-based

precipitation data. Future climate projections for 2011-

2050 were processed using simulations of five different

global climate models from the IPCC’s Coupled Model

Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) project. Global

model simulations of the future were downscaled to the

dense grid using the gridded present-day climate data

and delta change method.

The annual mean temperature in the Central Asian

main catchment area is projected to rise by about

three degrees and the changes to annual precipitation

are very small during the coming 40 years. When we

look at the seasonal precipitation changes, the already

dry south-western parts become even drier, especially

during summer. In some places in the mountains

precipitation might increase. However, there is vari-

ation from model to model. Mean temperatures rise

consistently throughout the year, with the warming

strongest in the mountains and in the northern parts of

the area. This information was used in modelling the

changes in hydrological circumstances and assessing

societal impacts.

Climate change leads to increased demand for water

due to increases in temperature, leading to higher

evapotranspiration rates for agricultural crops. The

stronger increase in demand is for the Amu Darya basin

(4.4 per cent) in comparison with the demand increase

for the Syr Darya basin (3.8 per cent). This is due to the

slightly stronger projected increase in temperature in

the Amu Darya basin compared to the Syr Darya basin.

Moreover, since precipitation does not change much

in the downstream areas, the large increase in unmet

demand is also caused by a decrease in run-off genera-

tion in the upstream mountains.

The project had a large training component and

all the material and graphs on the current and future

climate, along with training, were delivered to stake-

holders. As demonstrated by the large unmet demand in

water resources, adaptation to climate change is a neces-

sity and all possible activities should be implemented

urgently. The project thus recommended adaptation

strategies and supports the development of investment

plans for future projects in, for example, strategies for

water management, reservoirs, hydropower, canals, irri-

gation, flood protection, disaster/hazard preparedness,

modifications in cultivation, soil and forest protection,

and hydrometeorological GIS, modelling and observa-

tion technology.

Implementation

The project was implemented under the leadership of the

Finnish Consulting Group and in collaboration with FMI and

FutureWater, which developed hydrological models to assess the

availability of water resources in the region under climate change.

The project focuses on the Aral Sea basin (Pamir and Tien Shan

mountains) in the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan,

Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Hydrological models are devel-

oped for the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, and simulations made

using these models include several climate change scenarios

processed by FMI.

Work was carried out in two phases:

•

Development of a knowledge base on the likely impacts of

climate change on the Amu Darya and Syr Darya river basins

•

Development of capacity to use outputs in regional, national and

river-basin adaptation planning.

These outputs were applied to risk management strategies at the

regional, national, and river basin levels. The work builds on

approaches and methods used in similar projects for glacial-fed

river systems, such as Indus or Chu and Talas rivers.

The national hydrometeorological services were identified as key

national stakeholders in the project by the donor agency, along

with ministries and planning agencies tasked with water manage-

ment. Focus on water management and institutional capacity

building draws from the strategies and policies for projects of the

Asian Development Bank (ADB), which provided the funding for

the activity and is formulated by member countries. The project

follows an earlier project by ADB and is thus part of a scale-up of

institutional capacity building within ADB countries focusing on

adaptation to climate change. As the project results are mainly

training material and other guidance information, they can be used

by ADB, its member countries or any community that so desires.

The work was completed using existing climate and hydrological

models with the infrastructure of the project partners, so no infra-

structure investments were made.

Source: Punkari, M, P. Droogers, W. Immerzeel, A. Lutz, N. Pimenoff and

A. Venäläinen (2012). Water and Adaptation Interventions in Central and West

Asia. Final Report. Asian Development Bank Project TA 7532

Changes in annual demand and unmet demand in water

resources for the Amu Darya basin

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

2001-2010 2021-2030 2041-2050

Year

Water demand

Unmet demand