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T
he
I
mpacTs
and
I
mplIcaTIons
of
c
lImaTe
c
hange
and
V
arIabIlITy
and the subsequent additional risks and vulnerabilities to
human societies.
11
The project, led by Manuel Barange,
is anchored on outputs from global climate models and
coupled physical/biological ecosystem dynamic models
to predict ecosystem functioning in pre-industrial
(1850), present (2005), near future (2050) and distant
future (2100) scenarios. For each time period, the project
is estimating plankton production in 20 large marine
ecosystem units around the world.
Primary production will be linked to fish produc-
tion with models based on macro-ecological theory,
thus bypassing much of the species-based complex-
ity of marine food webs to express fish production by
groups of fish of different body size. These estimates
are used in the context of scenario building exercises
conducted with fisheries and development specialists
– including fisherfolk themselves, who are the real
experts. Scenario exercises are used to assess vulner-
ability of fisheries to future climate change, in the
context of other drivers. Specifically, the consequences
of climate change impacts on the markets for major
fish-based global commodities, such as fishmeal and oil.
The results should provide a new framework to study
fluctuations in natural resources subject to climate and
Three countries in particular have both the highest national vulner-
ability to climate impacts on fisheries and ‘extremely alarming’ global
hunger indices: Sierra Leone, Niger and the Democratic Republic of
the Congo.
10
These nations deserve the greatest support for adapta-
tion and development to face these challenges.
Strengthening science to inform adaptation needs and
mitigation options
The quantification of direct climate impacts on fish resources at
the global scale, and the resulting economic risks and societal
vulnerabilities, is hampered by a variety of factors: difficulties of
downscaling Global Climate Models to the scales of biological
relevance; lack of global ecosystem models capable of capturing
biological processes at the right scale and resolution; uncertainties
over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer
of this production through the food chain; difficulties in separating
the multiple additional stressors affecting fish production, includ-
ing differential geographical and temporal exploitation patterns and
policies; and, inadequate methodology to estimate human vulner-
abilities to these changes at all scales.
Quest-Fish, a research consortium between leading UK and inter-
national institutions, is addressing some of these challenges through
an innovative multi-scale, multi-disciplinary approach focused on
estimating the added impacts that climate change is likely to cause,
Unequal vulnerability
The vulnerability of national economies to potential climate change impacts on fisheries was calculated on the basis of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive
capacity, assuming slowly increasing global emissions (scenario B2 of the IPCC). Colours represent quartiles, with dark brown for the upper quartile (highest
vulnerability), yellow for the lowest quartile and grey where no data were available
Source: Originally published in ‘Vulnerability of national economies to potential impacts of climate change on fisheries’, Fish & Fisheries