Climate Sense

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Climate change, land degradation,

and forced migration

Andreas Rechkemmer, Special Advisor, Executive Direction and Management,

United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification

rowing evidence on the linkages between climate

change, land degradation, the reduction of drylands,

ecosystem services, poverty, and migratory move-

ments has raised the awareness of scholars and policy makers

alike. These linkages were traditionally understood as the

interplay between physical patterns of change and human

activities. Recent research efforts, however, have shown that

both climate change and desertification must be understood

as social phenomena largely driven by human activities. Hence

migration triggered by climate change and land degradation

can be perceived as socially constructed phenomena in an age

of global change.

Environmentally triggered migration and

environmental refugees

When the Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees was

adopted in Geneva in 1951, environmental degradation and

natural hazards were not considered by the negotiators when they

defined refugees as people suffering the ‘well-founded fear of being

persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership

of a particular social group or political opinion’.

In 1972, with

the Stockholm Conference on the Environment, world opinion

turned to global environmental issues and led to the establishment

of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 1973.

However, the problem of worsening environmental degradation

leading to environmentally triggered migration remained unno-

ticed until the 1980s when El-Hinnawi

formulated the concept of

environmental refugees.

Environmental refugees are a dramatically growing group, mostly

migrating from rural areas to cities. They are not yet officially

mentioned in United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees

statistics, as they do not fulfil the criteria of the Geneva Convention.

They are not mentioned in the statistics of the UN Populations

Division

or in the annual US World Refugee Survey.

As they are

not officially counted, only approximate estimates exist. And yet,

they may have surpassed all other types of refugees in numbers, and

could become the largest group of migrants this century, particularly

due to rapid global climate change.

There have always been people migrating due to natural and

environmental changes, hazards or disasters, and several civili-

zations – such as the Maya – collapsed due to environmental

change. Since then, the degradation of natural resources has

dramatically increased. In the late 1980s the ecological footprint

of humankind finally exceeded Earth’s capacity, marking the first

time in history when humankind managed its ecosphere in an

unsustainable way – not only locally or regionally,

but globally.

During recent decades, increasing scar-

city and overexploitation of natural resources, such

as soil and freshwater, has become a severe problem

due to an unprecedented rate of expansion. These

circumstances have evoked a new type of migratory

movement of people – the environmentally induced

migration. The causes of this migration are mostly

anthropogenic: transformations such as degradation

of soil or vegetation, fresh water and fresh air, and

global climate change.

The most severe of all environmental push factors

is global climate change. Norman Myers

argues that:

“when global warming takes hold there could be as

many as 200 million people displaced by disruptions

of monsoon systems and other rainfall regimes, by

droughts of unprecedented severity and duration, and

by sea-level rise and coastal flooding”. This projec-

tion refers to the year 2050, and means that based on

an estimated world population of nine billion, one

in every 45 people will become a forced migrant due

to climate change and its epiphenomena. Oli Brown

says: “We know that climate change will redraw our

coastlines, alter where and when we can find water,

and expose us to fiercer storms or more severe

droughts. We know that on current predictions the

‘carrying capacity’ of large parts of the world – the

ability of different ecosystems to provide food, water

and shelter for human populations – will be compro-

mised by climate change”.

The case of land degradation and desertification

As far as land degradation and desertification are

concerned, there are four groups of countries with

different causes but comparable results:

• Heterogeneous developing countries with their

fast overexploitation of land because of growing

populations, high vulnerability to climate change-

induced droughts, floods and precipitation changes,

worsening ecosystem services and international

trade patterns without real chances for coping

mechanisms

• Industrializing countries in Asia and South America

with their strong extension of food production and

population growth, foremost in urban areas

mpacts

and

mplications

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