Climate Sense

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overnance

and

olicy

cumulative rainfall forecast using the multi-model

ensemble technique. Extended-range weather forecasts

and seasonal climate forecasts are also being investi-

gated for inclusion in the advisory bulletins.

Acting together, IMD and regional Meteorological

Centres add value to the above range of services by

providing a twice-weekly advisory bulletin to 130

AMFUs. This bulletin is called the Agromet Advisory

Service and provides specific advice on crops, as well

as livestock. The bulletin is usually disseminated to the

farmers through channels including the mass media and

the internet. A mechanism has also been developed to

obtain feedback from the farmers on the quality and

relevance of the forecast content, as well as the effec-

tiveness of the dissemination system.

Via the Agromet Advisory Service, the scientific

community develops different adaptation strategies

suitable for different agroclimatic regions of the country

to counter the negative effects of climate change and

extreme weather events. These adaptation strategies

include educating farmers about weather forecasts,

150 kilometres) atmosphere-only general circulation model called

HadAM3H. This model is in turn forced by the sea surface tempera-

tures generated by a coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation

Model called HadCM3.

PRECIS estimates a 20 per cent rise in all Indian summer monsoon

rainfall for future scenarios. Simulation for 2071-2100 indicates an

overall warming of the Indian subcontinent associated with increas-

ing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. The predicted annual

mean surface air temperature rise by the end of the century is 3 to

5ºC under the A2 scenario, and 2.5 to 4ºC under the B2 scenario.

It is predicted that the warming will be more pronounced over the

northern parts of India.

Climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture

IMD established the Agrometeorological Advisory Service to help

Indian farmers mitigate the impacts of climate variability and

extreme weather events through agricultural planning and manage-

ment in rhythm with nature. The service provides district level

weather forecasts of up to five days for seven weather parameters:

rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed and

direction, relative humidity and cloudiness. It also provides a weekly

India’s annual mean temperature anomalies for the period 1901-2008 (based on 1961-1990 average)

Source: India Meteorological Department

Assessment of climate change and adaptation in India