Climate Sense

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Adapting to changes and fluctuations

in climate: a Russian perspective

Dr Alexander Bedritsky, Head, Roshydromet

ne of the biggest public requests the scientific commu-

nity receives is for forecasts on the probability of

extreme climate events with significant socioeconomic

and ecological consequences including heat waves, droughts,

floods and hurricanes. While the problem of the predictability

of extreme events, and of the climate system as a whole, remains

highly relevant for timescales ranging from several decades to

several centuries, today the most urgent need is for lead time

forecasts of one season to one decade. It is obvious that the

potential for predictability within the above mentioned times-

cale varies according to different climatic characteristics (as

well as to different regions of the planet) and may often be quite

limited, especially for Russian territory.

As we are looking at timescales in which, as a rule,

the changeability of both the climate system itself

– as well as its individual components – signifi-

cantly exceeds input from external (anthropogenic)

influences, the task of forecasting for one season to

one decade poses considerable difficulties. Research

in this sphere should probably be devoted to more

clearly delineating the theoretical borders of the

impossible, rather than to promising a progressive

increase in forecast accuracy and lead time. Hopes

for higher precision in evaluating future changes in

climate extremes on Russian territory, which are of

great practical interest, are connected with advances

overnance

and

olicy

Climate change could improve conditions for cargo transport in the Arctic seas

Image: International Polar Foundation