84 / 287
[
] 85
G
overnance
and
P
olicy
compiled in order to determine objectives, instruments, priorities,
and tasks connected to: climate change research; adaptation to
domestic impacts; reduction of domestic greenhouse gas emissions;
and the preparation of instruments for achieving these objectives.
The Climate Strategy began in 2008 and is scheduled to run until
2025 in accordance with international commitments. The govern-
ment will review it in 2010 and subsequently every five years.
Based on previous scientific research synthesized by VAHAVA,
NCCS outlined the effects of climate change on specific sectors.
These are: nature conservation; human environment and health
issues; water management; agriculture; regional development,
including development of settlements and the built environment.
NCCS will widen its scope to cover other sectors including tourism,
security policy and urban planning.
Follow up activities related to impact research
VAHAVA was pursued within the framework of the national
research project Preparation for Climate Change: Environment
– Risk – Society.
2
The range of the research areas were varied.
Climate change expectations were based on the Prudence Project
for Hungary, among other sources.
Climate change as input variables for impact and adaptation
studies was investigated on two levels: as a continuous linear slow
change of mean temperature and precipitation; and as a non-linear
change with more frequent and serious anomalies.
Considering the first type of change, crop development is acceler-
ated by higher temperature – assuming no nutrient and water stress
– although much higher than optimal temperature can endanger
crop growth. High temperatures increase evapotranspiration which
can rapidly dry the soil, although increasing CO
2
concentration has
a positive effect on biomass accumulation. Water use in agriculture
is expected to become much more expensive and thus more strictly
limited because of increasing private and industrial water use. Soil
productivity is also expected to change because organic
matter breaks down more intensively at high tempera-
tures. Warming has a positive effect on the reproduction
rate of pests, which increases the occurrence of infesta-
tion and makes pest control more expensive. Research
suggests that ecological zones can shift north at a rate
of 150-250 kilometres if global warming equals 1
o
C. For
Hungary this means that a temperature increase of 2
o
C
would involve great changes in climate conditions, in
turn requiring totally different land use.
We can establish that anomalies make production
uncertain, and extreme events can cause catastro-
phes, which have serious social and economic effects.
But since the global and moderately resolved regional
models could not provide full details of the changes
in frequency and peak intensity of these extremes, no
specific conclusion could be made.
Regional climate modelling
Climate dynamics and modelling in Hungary date
back to 2004, with the primary aim of adapting, vali-
dating and developing regional climate models for
the Carpathian Basin. There are four recent regional
models available for the simulation and projection of
climate. These are: ALADIN-Climate, PRECIS, RegCM
and REMO.
The following predictions can be made for the period
2021–2050, on the basis of model experiments. All
models agree that warming above global mean change
is anticipated for Hungary. The precise extent of the
increase varies between models, however the signal is
statistically significant. Uncertainties exist for change
in precipitation. Although the annual amount is not
expected to alter considerably, annual distribution is
likely to completely change. Decreased summer precipi-
tation is marked in each model, however changes in
other seasons are very uncertain. Projected precipi-
tation tendencies are not significant for any of the
models. Regarding extreme climate characteristics,
‘warm’ extremes and severe precipitation events will
increase, while ‘cold’ extremes will decrease to a lesser
extent. For temperature related extremes the changes
are significant, while results for precipitation should be
interpreted with extreme care, since they might repre-
sent natural climate variability.
In summary, the most important aspect of climate
modelling in Hungary is the fact that regional models
are available and can be successfully used for the
Carpathian Basin. It is essential that projections contain
information about their reliability and probability.
Outputs of the regional climate models should be used
as primary inputs for climate impact assessments in
the future, including the implementation of NCCS and
other adaptation-related efforts in Hungary.
The project has effects on Hungary’s position in inter-
national negotiations, as well as its participation within
the framework of EU level cooperation. It is especially
valid for setting, assessing and formulating impact poli-
cies and measures.
A painted sign for tourists is split by strong winds. The nearby meteorological station
registered wind gusts of up to 36.8 m/s (Bánkút, Hungary, 30 October 2008)
Image: Mariann Darányi, Hungarian Meteorological Service